Last week was round for me on the prop bet market, going 2-3 in the Miami Dolphins 70-20 victory over the Denver Broncos. I correctly had wide receiver Tyreek Hill scoring a touchdown and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa throwing more than 1.5 touchdown passes. I missed running back Raheem Mostert rushing for more than 63.5 yards, Jalean Philips having more than 0.75 sacks, and kicker Jason Sanders connecting on more than 1.5 field goals. But, did you expect 10 touchdowns and no field goals from the Dolphins?
We will try to make up for it this week with five more Dolphins player prop bets you should consider for the team’s Week 4 game against the Buffalo Bills. Sunday’s game is set up as another offensive shootout for the Dolphins, who are 3-0 on the season and have had big offensive performances in Weeks 1 and 3 - Week 2 felt more defensive-oriented than the other two weeks, and the Dolphins still had 24 points at the end of the game.
Just as a reminder, or if you are new to prop bets, they are placed on the moneyline, with odds set as either + or - odds. A negative odd indicated you need to place a bet of that much in order to win $100. For example, a -150 would mean a bettor would have to place a $150 bet to win $100 (a total of $250 returned). A positive number means a bettor would win that number if they placed a $100 bet. In the case of a +150 line, the bettor would place a $100 bet to win $150 if the prop hits (again, $250 returned).
All of these prop bets are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are five prop bets to consider this weekend:
Tua Tagovailoa, 35.5 pass attempts
Over: -120 Under: -110
This is an interesting one, because you cannot rely on the past week’s game to give you an idea of what this week could be. In Week 1, Tagovailoa threw 45 passes; in Week 2, 30 passes; and in Week 3, 26 pass attempts - but he also was pulled early when Miami was dominating their way to a victory. In a shootout-style game in Week 1, 45 passes, and this game appears set for another shootout. However, the Dolphins have found their running game and could rely on it more. I will take the over here because I think 36 pass attempts against the Bills makes sense, but much like the odds, this is nearly a coin toss.
Raheem Mostert, 52.5 rushing yards
Over: -110; Under: -120
Mostert taught me a lesson last week and I will not make the same mistake this week. Even if the Dolphins are in a shootout, Mostert should be able to reach the 52 yards mark. I am going over.
Tyreek Hill, 6.5 receptions
Over: -135; Under: +105
If the Dolphins are going to be in a shootout and Tagovailoa is going to be throwing the ball 36 times, a good number of those pass attempts should be targeting Hill. Will there be enough to get seven catches from Hill this weekend, especially with Jaylen Waddle returning to action? How much will the Bills sell out to stop Hill? He had 11 receptions in Week 1, five in Week 2, and nine in Week 3. I am going to go with the over, but would not be surprised if this comes in under because Waddle saw more of the action.
Christian Wilkins, 0.25 sacks
Over: +180; Under: -238
The Dolphins only recorded one sack last week, with Emmanuel Ogbah pulling down Russell Wilson late in the game. They cannot allow Josh Allen to feel comfortable in the pocket this week. Wilkins has history with the Bills and will be coming into the game extra hyped. I will assume he will be involved in at least a half sack, so once again, I am taking the over.
Jason Sanders, 2.5 points after made
Over: +105; Under: -135
Are the Dolphins going to put up 10 touchdowns against the Bills this week? Probably not. Will they at least get three? That feels likely, especially if everything else on this board happens. We will therefore take the over here, making a sweep of the overs and now making me second guess some of these positions.
The Sanders prop was not available in the Tallysight widget, but it does show up on DraftKings Sportsbook’s site: