Dolphins player prop bets in 2023 Week 2 against Patriots

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a Week 1 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers and will now face the New England Patriots in a Sunday Night Football divisional showdown in Week 2. Miami had a strong performance, especially on offense, against the Chargers. Will they have a similar showing against New England?

Last week, we took a look at some of the available prop bets for the Dolphins players against the Chargers. Why not do the same thing weekend for the Patriots game? This morning, we will look at stat totals for Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, tight end Durham Smythe, running back Raheem Mostert, and safety Jevon Holland.

Just in case you need a refresher, prop bets are wagers that are specific to an event or player inside the bigger contest. Bets can be on things like player statistics, which team does something specific, or who is the first to do something. Some of the most well-known prop bets each year is on the exact length of the National Anthem before the Super Bowl or the color of the Gatorade that will be poured over the winning coach after the Super Bowl. A player statistic prop typically provides a fractional stat total, with bets made for the player going over or under that mark.

Bets are placed like moneyline bets, using + and - odds. The favorite on the moneyline, or in the prop bet, is indicated by a negative number, such as -150. Using this example, a bettor would have to place a $150 bet to win $100 (a total of $250 returned).

The underdog is represented by a positive number, such as +150. In this case, the bettor would place a $100 bet to win $150 if the prop hits (again, $250 returned).

Here are some of the prop bets for tomorrow’s Dolphins at Patriots Sunday Night Football game, brought to us by DraftKings Sportsbook. Check them out for all of the available prop bets for the game.

Tua Tagovailoa, 1.5 touchdowns / 265.5 passing yards

Over: -125; Under: -105 / Over: -115; Under: -115

Last week’s game was an offensive shootout between two of the top offensive teams in the AFC. This week, Miami will be looking to continue the offensive firepower, but the Patriots are a more defensive focused team. Is it likely Tagovailoa will be able to match last week’s 466 yards and three touchdown pass performance? Probably not, given he has only surpassed 400 passing yards one other time in his career. But that does not mean he will not be able to put up numbers this weekend. The Patriots have done a solid job against Tagovailoa in his career, limiting him to an average of 181.5 passing yards in four games. However, the Dolphins have won all four of those games. This Tagovailoa is not the same quarterback he was early in his career, and Mike McDaniel’s offense is built to pass first and pass often. Over on both of these makes sense.

Raheem Mostert, 44.5 rushing yards

Over: -130; Under: +100

The odds favor Mostert going over 44.5 yards, even with the Dolphins seeming to forget they can run the ball as games progress. Mostert only had 37 yards on 10 carries last week. Will he surpass that this week? The Dolphins and Chargers were in a shootout all game long. This game should be a little more conventional and the running game should show up a little more. If he breaks some runs, 100 yards could be within Mostert’s grasp. Without them, 50 yards feels about right - which would be over this prop.

Tyreek Hill, 81.5 receiving yards

Over: -115; Under: -115

Until the odds have Hill’s total somewhere around 150 yards, I will probably always lean toward the over. It is so easy for him to turn a five-yard slant into a 75-yard gain that 81.5 yards seems low. Taking the over.

Jaylen Waddle, 4.5 receptions

Over: +105; Under: -135

This is where it gets a little more interesting. Waddle has struggled against the Patriots in his career. It feels like Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who is great at taking away one thing that works for opposing offenses each week, continually focuses the defense on keeping Waddle minimized. Will that happen this week? Will Belichick worry more about limiting Hill, leaving Waddle to have a big day? Will Waddle’s oblique injury slow him? There are questions here, but I will lean toward a five or six catch day for Waddle so I will take the over.

Durham Smythe, 2.5 receptions

Over: +120; Under: -150

Last week, Smythe tied his career high with three receptions, a surprise given how little of a focus the tight ends are in Miami’s offense. All three of those receptions came on one drive, with Smythe working as a possession receiver for Tagovailoa. It does not feel like Smythe will be a major part of the offense each week, but he will pick up some receptions when they are needed. Another career-high performance does not seem likely. Taking the under here.

Jevon Holland, 6.5 tackles + assists

Over: +105; Under: -135

Holland recorded the game high with 14 tackles last week, the fourth most in the league. When your safety is making that many tackles, it is usually a worry - but Holland’s role is to play everywhere on the defense which gives him the opportunity to make tackles. Hopefully someone like outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips or inside linebacker Jerome Baker has the team high in tackles, but Holland surpassing 6.5 would not be a surprise. Taking the over here.