A couple of months ago, Draft Kings released their Over / Under totals for all 32 NFL teams, and the Miami Dolphins came in at O/U 9.5 games won. Right now, the spreads stand at O9.5 (+100) and U9.5 (-120). Resident football analytic guy Warren Sharp had his site, Sharp Football Analysis, give bettors their top reasons on why to bet the over or the under. Both sides have a lot of good information, so whichever side you might be leaning it’s worth a read.
how many wins for the Dolphins this year?— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 25, 2023
they added Jalen Ramsey & hired Vic Fangio and were bottom-10 in fumble & FG luck last yr
but the schedule is brutal this yr
do they exceed 9.5 wins per @BetMGM?
reasons to bet on or fade Miami:https://t.co/u7K1QRNrtE
Betting The Over
- SFA gives a lot of the credit to Tua Tagovailoa on why to be looking at a 10+ win season and backs up one of the biggest flaws the Dolphins have had is back up QB. We all know that this season is a big question mark on Tua’s health, but more than that, when he is out, we just don’t win, and the offense is stale.
“With Tua under center, the offense averaged 0.18 EPA per dropback and a 44.9% success rate compared to -0.17 EPA per dropback and a 37% success rate when the backups played.”
“Tua averaged 0.32 EPA per dropback and 9.0 yards/attempt in the first 12 weeks and had a 19 to 3 TD-to-INT ratio.”
- The other reason for betting the over is because of the new additions on defense. Getting Jalen Ramsey, and David Long Jr, along with getting Brandon Jones, Nik Needham, and Emmanuel Ogbah back from injury has loaded this defensive roster. It’s not just top-heavy. There’s considerable depth, and with Vic Fangio on the controls, it’s looking like a top 5 defense.
Although the Dolphins were negative on turnover differential in 2022, that’s not going to be the case in 2023. The talent we have on defense mixed with Vic Fangio’s scheme will change everything. It’s going to be one of the best defenses the Dolphins have had in a long time, and the turnover differential will be one of our best stats. Book it.
“The Dolphins are likely to have significant improvement in turnovers and field goal luck.”
“They finished the season with a -7 turnover differential and finished with -2.0 net fumble recoveries above expectation.”
Betting The Under
- The first reason to bet the under deals with the yacht incident involving Tyreek Hill. SFA believes that there could be an incoming suspension because of previous behavior. The NFL historically lets the legal process play out before doing anything, and the yacht issue itself seems to be getting wrapped up now, so I don’t see a suspension on the horizon. Not saying that it’s not possible, but highly unlikely.
The article does list that we are dependent on Hill and Jaylen Waddle, both being on the field at the same time. The numbers support that in 2022, and we’ll be leaning even more on both being out there now that Mike Gesicki has signed with the Patriots. The tight-end group is going to have less production, but for a good reason that I’ll explain later. We do have a new crop of receivers, and it’s looking deep, so if there was a position group for the offense to lean on, it’s the receivers.
“In 2023, the offense struggled when one of Hill or Waddle was not on the field, averaging -0.21 EPA per dropback on the 178 dropbacks in which one of the receivers was not on the field.”
- The schedule will be a gauntlet this year, just as it was last year. The AFC East is better, and the AFC itself is stacked. If the Dolphins make the playoffs, they will be battle-tested.
“The Dolphins are ranked #30 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the third-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.”
- The last and the biggest issue SFA lists on why to bet the under is the offensive line. Whether it’s injuries to Terron Armstead or poor play at left guard and right tackle, it’s led to ineffective rushing and injuries at the quarterback position. I do think that the tight end position is going to give a boost on the edges in pass protection. The Dolphins have bulked up on the position, and they’re going to give the offensive line a little more muscle. They’ll run routes, of course, but will be the last option unless it’s designed for them. The offensive line has to protect QB1 to hit over 9.5 games.
If I was a betting man, I’m putting some sauce on the over, but we need a lot of things to go right. Lets us know which bet you would take in the comments.