Every year I like to project how I see the offseason will go. While I never hit it 100%, I do generally get it right as far as in the general direction. I will also mix in some what I would do to go with what I think Miami WILL do.
To start, we know Miami is over the CAP. While CB Jones has already been cut Post-June 1st & C.Carter has been cut, those were already well expected. I think most fans know Miami will be restructuring some contracts to get under the CAP & to have some spending power. While there are some holes to fill on OFF, I fully expect this offseason to target the DEF. Miami needs a top 10 DEF to make a playoff push & run. Miami also won't have a ton of CAP space to spend big bucks on a handful of contracts, so I think they spend a little more wisely on tier 2 type of players.
The likely restructures are Hill & Chubb. I do not see Armstead being restructured due to his age. It just doesn't make sense.
I expect Wilkins to get an extension which initially lowers his CAP hit in 2023. Total new deal worth 20mil per year ave. Seiler will either get extended or traded. I hope it's the extension, but if a deal can't be worked out, I expect Miami to shop him. As for Tua, he will either have his 5th yr option picked up or he'll get a short extension on top of the 5th year. The extension would give Tua some g'ds for injury while giving Miami a discount.
I already mentioned Seiler as a possibility, I also think C.Wilson may be in play for a trade. I don't think either will happen, but both are possible. No one is trading for Ogbah or Baker and Howard's contract is untradeable.
MAIN POSITIONS OF FOCUS
- Back up QB competition
Miami signs a veteran with starting experience for under 4mil. I'm going with Heinicke, but honestly there are several directions they could go. But Miami wants a competition for that back up role and needs to keep 3 QB's on the roster anyways.
- RB unit (the entire unit)
I expect Miami to sign 2 FA's, tender Ahmad and draft a RB. I don't think Miami will sign any of the expensive free agents, but some combination of Mostert, Wilson or someone in that price range. I would like them to sign Sanders and Wilson. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's Mostert instead. I also don't see Miami using that 2nd rd pick on a RB. It's possible they use a 3rd rd pick, but I am projecting a day 3 pick to compete with an UDFA.
Miami may sign a free agent TE, but I think Grier elects to draft one on day 2. Not sure if it's the 2nd or 3rd rd, just depends on who is available when the pick comes up.
While I have been as vocal about the OL over the past several years as anyone, I don't see Miami attacking it hard this offseason. That means no big signings or starters signed. Instead I think we resign Shell or someone similar and Miami drafts an OT on day 2 to compete for a starter spot, but ultimately being depth initially. I just think McD wants to run it back with EIch & Jackson with some competition.
After drafting Tindall last year not to play him, I think Grier goes the FA way this year. I expect Miami to sign a starting caliber 3 down ILB. I don't think Miami goes after the top 2 or 3 most expensive though. I think they will go in 2 possible ways. Most likely is signing a good veteran that can start day one but not be locked into a long term contract in case Tindall develops. I'm going will L.David. His home is in Tampa, so it's an easy move for him during the season. If Fangio prefers to go younger, I'm going with Al-sheer or Pratt. Neither should break the bank, but both would upgrade the position day 1. I also expect Miami to resign Roberts.
I think Miami resigns Needham if the medical checks out. If not, I think they will sign someone else that has starting experience, but I don't see them signing another 18mil per year type of player. I also expect Miami to draft a CB on day 2 to compete and provide depth. So adding a player like Needham and a day 2 pick to go with X, Kohou & company should give us a strong enough CB unit for Fangio.
Sign Poyer. He's practically saying he wants to come here, he's still a really good player, and allows Fangio to run his 2 high safety look. S Jones would still have a role on the team, but I see him as more of a hybrid LB/SS. He can play the run, cover TE's and rush the passer.
Let me know what you think and thanks for reading.