The Miami Dolphins enter Week 16 of the 2023 NFL regular season with a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys on the schedule. A late-season game between two division leaders brings with it a multitude of playoff implications, including the Dolphins’ ability to clinch a spot in the AFC playoff picture.
This week’s game will require strong performances from multiple Dolphins players if Miami wins and claims their postseason berth. A win would also put them on the verge of claiming their first AFC East division title since 2008 and make next week’s meeting with the Baltimore Ravens a potential deciding game for the AFC’s top seed.
The Cowboys are not going to come in and laydown. They are still battling the Philadelphia Eagles for the division title in the NFC East and with the San Francisco 49ers for the stop spot in the NFC playoff picture.
Who needs to have big days for the Dolphins? As I do weekly, I have built my player prop bets for the Dolphins, with the odds brought to us by DraftKings Sportsbook, looking for bets where I think the individual will go over the line. Last week’s bets included some creativity as several Dolphins players were not listed in the odds due to question marks about health status. I did, however, finally have a 5-0 week, correctly selecting running back Raheem Mostert to have an anytime touchdown, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to throw at least one pass 35.5 yards, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel each have at least 0.25 sacks, and kicker Jason Sanders to have over 6.5 kicking points.
Can I back it up with another strong performance in Week 16? Here are my five Dolphins prop bets to consider this week. All of these are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, 1.5 passing touchdowns
Over: -166; Under: +130
The Dolphins and Cowboys will likely come down to a shootout, with the DraftKings Sportsbook odds setting the point total for the game at 50 points, the highest mark in the league. While Mostert likely scores on the ground, the Dolphins passing game is dynamic and it seems likely Tagovailoa will be able to find paydirt at least twice in the game. Taking the over.
De’Von Achane, 47.5 rushing yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
The Cowboys allowed 266 rushing yards last week to the Buffalo Bills. Miami’s rushing attack of Mostert and Achane should be ready to take advantage of the same weaknesses Buffalo found last week. Achane reaching 48 yards should not be out of the realm of possibilities, especially given he has a 200 yard performance this season. The over should hit here.
Durham Smythe, 0.5 touchdowns
Tight end Durham Smythe does not land on our player props very often this year, but I am going to put him here, despite the long odds. This feels like a game where the Dolphins break out something different, and why not look to Smythe in the redzone?
Bradley Chubb, 0.25 sacks
Over: +100; Under: -130
Chubb recorded three sacks last week and can move into double digits for the year with a half-sack in this game. His career high of 12 in his rookie season in 2018 could be within reach if he continues to get after quarterbacks over the next couple of weeks. The Cowboys’ offensive line is dealing with some injuries - they are still very talented, but may be a step slow - and Chubb should be able to at least get to quarterback Dak Prescot for a half sack.
Jason Sanders, 2.5 extra points made
Over: -140; Under: +110
The assumption is this will be a high-scoring game. I already took the over for Tagovailoa throwing two touchdowns. If that happens, plus at least one Mostert touchdown on the ground, 2.5 extra points will be an easy over for Sanders.