Week 13 of the NFL schedule includes the Miami Dolphins facing off against the Washington Commanders. The game features the top offense in the league with Miami going up against the worst scoring defense in the league for Washington. This game has the potential to get out of hand if the Dolphins offense is able to operate at full throttle for 60 minutes and the Dolphins defense continues to look like a dominating unit as they have the last few weeks.
Miami is 8-3 on the season and in first place in the AFC East. The Commanders are 4-8, sitting in the basement of the NFC East. The Dolphins are fighting for the top-seed position in the AFC playoff picture. Washington is holding a top-five selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.
This is a game with two teams headed in opposite directions. Miami should be able to handle the Commanders, who fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio this week and are simply trying to hold on through the end of the season. Any given Sunday is always a factor, but Miami comes into this game looking like the better team. And they should have good individual performances during the game.
The oddsmakers from DraftKings Sportsbook have updated their player prop bets for the week, allowing us to predict the best individual performances. Last week, I was 3-2 on my prop bets, correctly predicting Tyreek Hill’s longest reception to go over 25.5 yards (35), Raheem Mostert to run for more than 59.5 yards (94), and Jason Sanders to kick more than 1.5 field goals (2). I missed on Tua Tagovailoa throwing for more than 249.5 yards (243) and Jevon Holland having more than 5.5 tackles (5).
Here are my five Dolphins prop bets to consider this week. All of these are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, 1.5 passing touchdowns
Over: -210 Under: +160
The Washington defense has been struggling as of late and gives up the most points in the league. The Dolphins are going to be looking to get their offense back into rhythm and start putting points back on the board. This should add up to a big passing day for Tagovailoa, including at least two touchdowns. Despite having to wager over $200 just to make $100, take the over.
Jaylen Waddle, 65.5 receiving yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
Waddle seemed to break out last week as he led the team in receiving yards. A key to Miami getting the offense fully into rhythm is to have both Waddle and Tyreek Hill being major threats to opposing defenses. If Tagovailoa is to have a big passing day, a large part of that should go toward Waddle. Taking the over here as well.
Jaylen Waddle, 0.5 receiving touchdowns
Over: +145; Under: -180
We stick with Waddle here on what feels like a value bet. If Miami really is going to be putting points on the board, and Tagovailoa and Waddle respectively go over on the passing touchdowns and receiving yards totals, it seems likely Waddle will find the endzone on Sunday. Waddle has not found the endzone in over a month - his last score came against the New England Patriots in Week 8 - and it feels like that streak needs to end soon. Why not this weekend? Taking the over.
Andrew Van Ginkel, 0.25 sacks
Over: +120; Under: -150
The Dolphins are going to have to rely on Van Ginkel more now that Jaelan Phillips is out for the year with a torn Achilles tendon. AVG will likely still have inside linebacker duties, but he should see more pass rushing snaps as well. Whenever he in on the field, Van Ginkel seems to make a play. He should be able to get at least a half-sack against the Commanders. Taking the over.
Jason Sanders, 7.5 kicking points
Over: +105; Under: -135
I thought I was going to go all overs again this week, but eight points seems high for Sanders. Miami should be putting touchdowns on the board this weekend, but probably not eight of them. Five touchdowns and a field goal feels crazy as well. I think the under has to be the play here, even expecting Miami to put up a bunch of points.