Week 14 of the 2023 NFL schedule concludes with a pair of Monday Night Football games. While the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants are facing off in an ABC broadcast game, the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins will be on the field with coverage from ESPN. The Dolphins come into the game as heavy favorites, a line that is up to 14 points as of Monday morning. If the Dolphins do have the success that the spread would seem to indicate, they should have big individual performances all across the field.
As I have done each week this season, I turned to the oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook to build a set of five player prop bets to consider for the Dolphins. Last week was miserable for me as I went 1-4 on the bets. I correctly predicted quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to throw for more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (2), but missed badly on my expectation that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle would have a big day including over 65.5 receiving yards (52) and over 0.5 receiving touchdowns (0). I also was off on my expectation that linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel would record move than 0.25 sacks (0 - but he should have been credited with one and I will stand by that argument) and I expected kicker Jason Sanders to be under 7.5 kicking points (9). Now it is time for me to rebound.
Here are my five Dolphins prop bets to consider this week. All of these are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, 40.5 yards longest passing completion
Over: -120 Under: -110
The Titans secondary is suspect at best and the Dolphins make good defenses pay with the long ball. There should be at least one long pass or long catch-and-run during this game. I will take the over here.
Tyreek Hill, 31.5 yards longest reception
Over: -110; Under: -120
If Tagovailoa has a completion over 40.5 yards, the odds have to support Hill being the one to catch it. It could go to Waddle, and it would not be surprising if both receivers have long receptions, but playing the odds has me taking the over here.
De’Von Achane, 56.5 rushing yards
Over: -130; Under: +100
In any game in which Achane has had two or more carries, he has had a least 73 yards rushing. This feels like an easy over tonight.
Andrew Van Ginkel, 0.25 sacks
Over: -120; Under: -110
I am going to go right back to Van Ginkel and think he will pick up at least a half-sack tonight. The Titans offensive line has struggled this year and Van Ginkel is a beast when allowed to be a pure pass rusher. He will get to quarterback Will Levis at some point tonight.
Jason Sanders, 7.5 kicking points
Over: -135; Under: -105
Last week, I thought 7.5 points felt crazy because the Dolphins have attempted to convert on fourth down over kicking field goals at times and they likely would not see eight touchdowns scored against the Commanders. Sanders only kicked one field goal, but six extra points pushed him over the 7.5-point mark. Coming into Week 14, the total is again 7.5 points. Miami should be able to score seemingly at will against the Titans. I will learn my lesson from last week and make it an all over fest this week.