Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season includes the first-ever trip to Frankfurt, Germany, with the league selecting the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs for that contest. It appears to be the best international series matchup ever, with both teams 6-2 on the year, tied for the best record in the AFC, and looking like teams that can make deep pushes into the playoffs this year.
This game is the game of the week and could have lasting impacts in the playoff picture this season. Miami is coming off a win to complete the season sweep of their AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots. The Chiefs lost last week to their AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos. Will Miami continue to rack up wins, and end the discussion of not having beaten a team with a winning record this year? Will the Chiefs bounce back from losing to a team they had beaten 15 straight times?
As I do every week, Each week, I have taken a look at five Dolphins player prop bets available from DraftKings Sportsbook, trying to find the right bets to consider for the week. Last week, I finally nailed my picks, correctly predicting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa over a 38.5 yard longest completion in the game (42), running back Jeff Wilson, Jr., over 20.5 rushing yards (23), wide receiver Tyreek Hill over 91.5 receiving yards (112), wide receiver Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions (7), and kicker Jason Sanders under 1.5 field goals (1).
Here are my five Dolphins prop bets to consider this weekend. All of these prop bets are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, 273.5 passing yards
Over: -115 Under: -115
The Dolphins’ quarterback is averaging 302 passing yards per game this year. The Chiefs’ defense, however, is second against the pass this year, allowing just 176.1 yards per game through the air this season. Something has to give in this game. Miami is going to (a) need to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense, which will be looking to rebound after struggling last week, and (b) be looking to ensure wide receiver Tyreek Hill has a big day. That gives me an over feeling, but I would not be surprised if Miami finds their running game and Tagovailoa comes in just a little under. Will still take the over.
Raheem Mostert, 67.5 combined rushing and receiving yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
Can Miami run against the Chiefs? They are allowing 111.6 yards per game on the ground, so there is potential for the Dolphins to find success there. Mostert should get his opportunities. He is averaging a little over 2.3 receptions per game this year, with an 18.9 receiving yards per game average. If we assume he picks up 19 yards through the air, that leaves just 48.5 rushing yards needed to reach this mark. Mostert should be able to reach that. Taking the over here.
Tyreek Hill, 27.5 yards longest reception
Over: -115; Under: -115
Hill is going to be looking to break every play he can for big yards, trying to take it to his old team. Hill reaching 28 yards on at least one reception feels like an easy over.
Jalen Phillips, 0.25 sacks
Over: +110; Under: -140
The Dolphins have seen linebacker Bradley Chubb get hot over the past several weeks, recording four sacks in the last three games. Phillips, who was expected to be the breakout player on defense this year for Miami, has been slowed by injuries and only has 2.5 sacks thus far this season. That includes a sack in each of the last two games, though. While the focus may be on Chubb, Phillips has a chance to make an impact on this game. He should be able to get at least a half sack. Taking the over.
Jason Sanders, 6.5 kicking points
Over: -105; Under: -125
This one is tight. Will the Dolphins have to settle for a couple of field goals during the game? It feels like they will, which would already push Sanders to six points. Add in one extra point, and you have surpassed the set total. Miami needs to put up touchdowns on Sunday, but two field goals feels like it will happen. Taking the over.
Another over-fest for me this week. Will it happen?