The NFL schedule has added another date to their schedule in 2023, looking to expand their control of the Thanksgiving weekend with a Black Friday stand-alone game. An afternoon game on a Friday - a day most NFL players have not played on since High School - the Black Friday game is essentially the Week 12 Thursday Night Football game, including the game being broadcast on Prime Video.
The inaugural Black Friday game features an AFC East rivalry game as the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets at 3 p.m. ET Friday. The Dolphins enter the week with a 7-3 record and in the top spot in the AFC East. The Jets have struggled to a 4-6 record for the season and are making a change at quarterback, moving from Zach Wilson to Tim Boyle in the hope of sparking their stagnant offense.
The Dolphins and Jets have much to prove in the stand-alone Black Friday game. While the team results will be critical to the AFC playoff picture, the individual player performances will determine the outcome of Friday’s game.
The oddsmakers from DraftKings Sportsbook have updated their player prop bets for the week, giving us a chance to predict the best individual performances. Last week, I nailed my offensive prop bets, correctly predicting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to go over on his passing yards, wide receive Tyreek Hill over on his combined receiving and rushing yards, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to go under on his receiving yards. I missed on Bradley Chubb going over 0.25 sacks - though in the write up I said I would take the over for both Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, only to have Phillips record two sacks and Chubb have none. I also missed on expecting kicker Jason Sanders to be under 1.5 field goals made.
Here are my five Dolphins prop bets to consider this week. All of these are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, 250.5 passing yards
Over: -115 Under: -115
Even when the Dolphins offense feels like it is struggling, the passing attack is putting up yards. Tagovailoa has been held under 250 yards three times this year - and one of those was 249 passing yards. The Jets defense is strong, but Tagovailoa has gotten his passing yardage against almost everyone. Taking the over here.
Tyreek Hill, 25.5 yards longest reception
Over: -120; Under: -110
Hill turning a slant into a long gain has become the norm for the Dolphins defense. They take their shots down the field, but Hill’s speed allows him to turn any reception into a big gain. He has had three games this season when he did not have a reception of at least 25.5 yards. There is no reason to think he does not break at least one reception for at least 26 yards this week. Taking the over.
Raheem Mostert, 59.5 rushing yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
The Jets defense allows 137.6 rushing yards per game, the third most in the league. The Dolphins have the second-ranked rushing offense, gaining 143.0 yards per game this year, while Mostert has the second most rushing yards in the league with 691 entering Week 12. I honestly thought I was going to take the under here, because the Jets defense should take something away from the Dolphins in this game, but the run defense has struggled this year. I will go with the over.
Jevon Holland, 5.5 tackles and assists
Over: -145; Under: +114
Holland averages seven combined tackles and assists per game this year, but 25 tackles/assists skew those stats in the first two weeks of the year. In his last seven games played, Holland has eight, six, four, three, six, eight, and five combined tackles. The 5.5 mark is exactly the right spot for this line. The Dolphins will likely stack the box this week, daring new Jets quarterback Tim Boyle to throw, giving Holland additional opportunities to rack up tackles against the run. I will take the over here.
Jason Sanders, 1.5 field goals made
Over: -135; Under: +105
I am going to go right back to this prop this week and it is the exact same line. The Dolphins attempted three field goals last week, with Sanders connecting on two of them. Will they go for field goals again this week? At some point, Miami will need Sanders to make kicks and will need him to be confident that everything is going well. May as well make this an over-fest this week.