After sitting out Week 10 on their one bye week of the 2023 NFL regular season, the Miami Dolphins get back on the field in Week 11 as they host the Las Vegas Raiders. The Dolphins, having lost in Week 9 to the Kansas City Chiefs, are 6-3 on the season and, with every other AFC East team losing last weekend, are comfortably in first place in the AFC East. Miami’s defense is rounding into form and the team is getting healthy as the second half of the season opens.
The Raiders have struggled early this year, leading to several changes to the depth chart and the coaching staff. Jimmy Garoppolo, who has been dealing with injuries for much of the year, has been benched, with fourth-round draft pick Aidan O’Connell being elevated into the starting quarterback role. Head coach Josh McDaniels was fired after a 3-5 start to the year, with linebackers coach Antonio Pierce promoted as the interim head coach. Since those moves, Las Vegas has won their last two games, climbing back to 0.500 at 5-5 and just outside the AFC playoff picture.
This weekend’s matchup between Las Vegas and Miami could have huge playoff implications. Can Miami keep up with the top-tier teams in the league and position themselves for a deep playoff run? Can the Raiders continue their hot streak and break through the playoff bubble, moving into a wild card spot?
Individual performances will be critical to the answers of those questions. The oddsmakers from DraftKings Sportsbook have updated their player prop bets for the week, giving us a chance to predict the best individual performances for the week. trying to find the right bets to consider for the week. After a 5-0 performance in Week 8, my Week 9 prop bets crashed back down to a 2-3 record. I correctly picked running back Raheem Mostert to go over 67.5 combined rushing and receiving yards (85) and linebacker Jaelan Phillips over 0.25 sacks (1). In what was surprisingly a more defensive game, I was incorrect on expecting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to go over 237.5 passing yards (193), wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s longest reception over 27.5 yards (19), and kicker Jason Sanders over 6.5 points (2).
With a week off from making prop bets, can I now rebound as the Dolphins get back on the field? Here are my five Dolphins prop bets to consider this weekend. All of these are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, 1.5 passing touchdowns
Over: -190 Under: +145
Miami is going to want to make a statement this weekend, and that likely leads to an offensive explosion. The Dolphins’ offense operates on a different level at home, where they can use their motions and cadence rhythm to create confusion and mismatches. It should all lead to Tagovailoa being able to find the endzone at least twice. Taking the over.
Tyreek Hill, 90.5 receiving and rushing yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
Hill should go over 100 yards receiving this week as the Dolphins look to keep him on pace for 2,000 yards this year. Adding in the possibility of a jet sweep or a reverse to add additional yardage for Hill feels like a free bet. Interestingly, adding in the rushing yards only adds two yards to the receiving yards total for Hill (88.5). Hammering the over here.
Jaylen Waddle, 63.5 receiving yards
Over: -63.4; Under: -115
Waddle is averaging only 65.3 yards per game this year, partly slowed due to nagging injuries. He is not on the injury report this week, and it feels like he is getting closer to finally breaking out and looking like himself again. Miami’s offense works best when Hill and Waddle dominate, creating multiple threats to the opposing defense. It is not a bad season for the third-year receiver, and he is on pace to get back to 1,000 yards, but it just has not felt like the expected performances from Waddle. Will he have his breakout this week? I am going to take the under here, as much as I want to believe it will be wrong.
Bradley Chubb, 0.25 sacks
Over: -110; Under: -120
Miami will be looking to confuse rookie O’Connell, and they should be trying to get as much pressure on him as possible. That should lead to Chubb and Phillips having strong days. Phillips is -105 for the over on 0.25 sacks as well. I would take the over for both, but for these purposes, I will list Chubb’s line and take the over.
Jason Sanders, 1.5 field goals made
Over: +115; Under: -140
Again, I expect Miami’s offense to try to make a statement this weekend, which means they are not relying on field goals to put up points. I considered the point after try prop bet, which is set at 3.5 PATs for Sanders, but would rather take the field goals under here.