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What do the Dolphins’ playoff chances look like heading into Week 11?

A win on Sunday gives Miami an 84% chance of making the playoffs.

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Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by Mario Hommes/DeFodi Images via Getty Images

Despite losses in two of their last three games, the Miami Dolphins still sit at a comfortable 6-3. In fact, should the NFL Playoffs start tomorrow, the Dolphins would be the No. 4 seed in the AFC, and would play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round.

That being, Miami’s remaining schedule is one of the easier ones in the NFL, and a win on Sunday could potentially set the team up for a deep run in the second half of the season. Five of Miami’s remaining eight games are at home, and only three are against opponents who currently hold a winning record.

As per Pro Football Focus’ playoff projection model, the Dolphins currently have a 75% chance of making the playoffs, 4th-highest in the AFC. A win in Week 11 over the Las Vegas Raiders would improve that number to 84%, but a loss would drop it down to 59%.

The Dolphins’ playoff chances with a win or a loss this Sunday.
Pro Football Focus

That’s a fairly large swing between a win and a loss, 25 percentage points to be exact. In other words, the Dolphins have quite a bit on the line this Sunday.

ESPN’s analytics model is slightly more favorable towards the Dolphins, giving the team a 95% chance of making the playoffs as things stand, and an 85% chance of winning the division. Their model also predicts the Dolphins as the team most likely to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with a 27% chance.

Seeding probabilities for the Dolphins, heading into Week 11.
ESPN Analytics.

Regardless of the numbers, one thing is true—a win over the 5-5 Raiders would go a long way in clinching Miami’s spot in the playoffs. Much has been said about the team’s ability to win big games, but a win on Sunday not only puts the team in pole position to the playoffs, but also to win the AFC East.

How confident are you in the Dolphins’ playoff chances this season? Will they get the job done this Sunday? Leave your thoughts in the comments below!

This article was written by Staff Writer Sumeet Jena, who you can find on X at @flameosumeet.