In Week 3, I was 2-3 on player prop bets. Looking to right the ship, I went over happy for the Miami Dolphins as they visited the Buffalo Bills - and I finished 0-5 as Buffalo smacked Miami in the face. Thankfully, I have been better on my winners picks for every game each week, but it is time to bounce back on the prop bets front.
The Dolphins host the New York Giants on Sunday and will be looking to bounce back from their own rough Week 4. That should result in some strong individual performances and, hopefully, a better performance in my five Dolphins player prop bets for the weekend.
Just as a reminder, or if you are new to prop bets, they are placed on the moneyline, with odds set as either + or - odds. A negative odd indicates you need to place a bet of that much in order to win $100. For example, a -150 would mean a bettor would have to place a $150 bet to win $100 (a total of $250 returned). A positive number means a bettor would win that number if they placed a $100 bet. In the case of a +150 line, the bettor would place a $100 bet to win $150 if the prop hits (again, $250 returned).
All of these prop bets are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are five prop bets to consider this weekend:
Tua Tagovailoa, 287.5 passing yards
Over: -115 Under: -115
The Dolphins are going to want to make a statement this week against an ailing Giants team. Tagovailoa should be able to reach the 300-yard mark again this week, pushing him over the oddsmakers' total.
De’Von Achane, 15.5 yards longest rush
Over: -110; Under: -120
In the two games he has played a significant role in the Miami offense, Achane has long runs of 67 yards and 55 yards. He is averaging a ridiculous 11.4 yards per carry. He is not going to keep up that average, but it feels like 16 yards on one carry should be able to happen.
Braxton Berrios, 30.5 receiving yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
This feels like a game where Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be featured a lot. That does not leave a lot of room for Berrios to have a big day. He is a big part of the Miami offense, especially as a possession type of receiver, making the big conversion catch when it is needed, but he if Hill and Waddle are having big days, the Dolphins may not need a lot of conversion catches. Berrios has done over 30.5 yards in three of the four weeks this season, but I am leaning toward a lower yardage day from him this week.
Bradley Chubb, 0.25 sacks
Over: -115; Under: -115
Where is Chubb? He has 14 tackles, one forced fumble, and one sack this year. The Dolphins have been asking him to drop into coverage this year, but they need to get him back to creating chaos in the backfield. With the Giants offensive line decimated by injuries right now, what a perfect time to get at least a half sack on the day.
Jevon Holland, 7.5 Tackles and Assists
Over: +105; Under: -135
Holland has 14, 11, 8, and 6 combined tackles and assists in the first four games this year. The downward trend is worrisome if trying for the over. However, those totals were good enough for either the team-high or the second-most on the team in each of those games. Holland likely will remain among the top tacklers on the team and I will take the over here.