Tonight’s Sunday Night Football game features the 5-1 Miami Dolphins visiting the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles. It is a matchup between two of the top teams in the league, and a matchup worthy of the primetime position. Both teams had top-tier offenses and the oddsmakers expect this to be a high-scoring affair. According to the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, this game’s point total is 51.5, four points higher than the next closest game’s total.
A high-scoring game leads to several key offensive players performing strongly during the night. Along with the game odds, DraftKings Sportsbook also provides player prop bets, individual bets on a player reaching the specified total in yards, touchdowns, receptions, or several other stat categories. The bets are made on the moneyline, with odds set as either + or - odds. A negative odd indicates you need to place a bet of that much in order to win $100. For example, a -150 would mean a bettor would have to place a $150 bet to win $100 (a total of $250 returned). A positive number means a bettor would win that number if they placed a $100 bet. In the case of a +150 line, the bettor would place a $100 bet to win $150 if the prop hits (again, $250 returned).
Last week, I expected the Dolphins to have an explosive performance against the Carolina Panthers and I selected my prop bets with the idea that Miami would be able to reach the over on all of them. Miami won the game 42-21, but most of my over picks came up short.
I correctly predicted defensive tackle Zach Sieler to record over 0.25 sacks (he finished with one sack) and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle over 0.5 touchdowns (1). The rest of my overs, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa over 284.5 passing yards (262), running back Salvon Ahmed over 23.5 rushing yards (23), and kicker Jason Sanders over 7.5 kicking points (6), came up just a little short. Can I bounce back this weekend as the Dolphins and Eagles face off?
The Miami Dolphins are 4-1 through the first five weeks of the 2023 season and look like a team that should be competing deep into the playoffs this year. Their Week 6 opponent, the Carolina Panthers, are 0-5 on the year and are struggling to find their identity as rookie quarterback Bryce Young adjusts to the NFL game. This game could get out of hand pretty quickly, with Miami running over the Panthers.
Here are my five Dolphins prop bets to consider this weekend. All of these prop bets are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tua Tagovailoa, 1.5 passing touchdowns
Over: -140 Under: +110
This game is expected to be an offensive shootout. If that comes to be a true prediction, then quarterback Tua Tagaovailoa will have to throw for multiple touchdowns. Taking the over here seems like a simple decision.
Raheem Mostert, 52.5 rushing yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
Mostert is the Dolphins lead running back, especially with De’Von Achane still on injured reserve. The return to Jeff Wilson, Jr., from IR likely will not impact Mostert’s performance as the team likely ramps up Wilson slowly. Head coach Mike McDaniel has proven that he will stick with the rushing attack much more than last year, but the Eagles are allowing the second-lowest rushing yardage this year, giving up just 65.8 yards per game. This one might be a tough one this week, but I will give the Dolphins the benefit of the doubt that they can get Mostert to 53 yards.
Tyreek Hill, 98.5 receiving yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
Hill is averaging 135.7 yards per game and needs to average 107.8 yards for the remainder of the season to reach his stated goal of 2,000 receiving yards. Once again, if this is an offensive shootout, Hill should be heavily involved in any offensive success Miami has on the day. Taking the over (again).
Jevon Holland, 6.5 tackles and assists
Over: -115; Under: -115
Assuming this is going to be an offensive shootout implies that both offenses will be humming throughout the game. If the Eagles’ offense is moving the ball, the Dolphins safeties will have to be heavily involved in trying to keep Philadelphia out of the endzone. Holland is second on the team in tackles with 46, one behind linebacker David Long, Jr. A busy day in the secondary could lead to a busy day for Holland, but his tackles have gone down every week, starting with a season-high 14 in Week 1, then down to 11 in Week 2, and eight in Week 3. Since then, he has had six, four, and three total tackles. He likely is over three tackles this week, but I see him coming in just under the 6.5 mark.
Durham Smythe, 1.5 receptions
Over: -160; Under: +124
I normally take a special teams prop bet in this spot, but DraftKings Sportsbook does not have Jason Sanders props on the board. Instead, I will turn to tight end Durham Smythe, who is becoming the all-around tight end McDaniel wants on his offense. He is not a huge part of the passing offense, only being targeted 16 times through the first six games, including one target without a reception last week. His receptions by week this season have been three, three, one, four, zero (no targets), and zero. Sunday is “National Tight Ends Day” and McDaniel is a fun coach who seems like the type who will want to reward his tight end if he can. Two or three receptions on the night seems to be a good bet.