The Miami Dolphins are 4-1 through the first five weeks of the 2023 season and look like a team that should be competing deep into the playoffs this year. Their Week 6 opponent, the Carolina Panthers, are 0-5 on the year and are struggling to find their identity as rookie quarterback Bryce Young adjusts to the NFL game. This game could get out of hand pretty quickly, with Miami running over the Panthers.
Last week, I was 3-2 on my Dolphins player prop bets. I took the over on four of the five bets, correctly predicting running back De’Von Achane would have a run over 15.5 yards, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would throw for more than 287.5 yards, and wide receiver Braxton Berrios would be under 30.5 receiving yards. I took the over on linebacker Bradley Chubb having more than 0.25 sacks and on safety Jevon Holland recording more than 7.5 tackles and assists.
With the Dolphins facing a struggling Panthers team this week, I decided to go for all overs on my prop bets. Just as a reminder, or if you are new to prop bets, they are placed on the moneyline, with odds set as either + or - odds. A negative odd indicates you need to place a bet of that much in order to win $100. For example, a -150 would mean a bettor would have to place a $150 bet to win $100 (a total of $250 returned). A positive number means a bettor would win that number if they placed a $100 bet. In the case of a +150 line, the bettor would place a $100 bet to win $150 if the prop hits (again, $250 returned).
All of these prop bets are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are five prop bets to consider this weekend:
Tua Tagovailoa, 284.5 passing yards
Over: -105 Under: -125
The Dolphins will be without running back Achane this week, which could lead to a few more passing attempts for the offense. Tagovailoa’s passing yards going down by three yards from last week really only makes sense if the oddsmakers are betting on the Dolphins pulling Tagovailoa if this game gets out of hand. Tagovailoa should be over 300 yards passing in this game.
Salvon Ahmed, 23.5 rushing yards
Over: -115; Under: -115
Ahmed should see an increase in playing time with Achane out, and the team keeps telling us the players struggle to tell who is running the ball on film - Achane or Ahmed - unless they see the shoes. Raheem Mostert will start at running back and should see the majority of the carries, but Ahmed will likely get enough touches to eclipse this mark, especially if he and Achane are essentially interchangeable.
Jaylen Waddle, 0.5 touchdowns
Over: +105; Under: +105
Waddle is going to break out at some point. This week may as well be that moment. He should at least find the endzone once in this game.
Zach Sieler, 0.25 sacks
Over: +160; Under: -210
Miami’s pass rush should be able to get to Panthers quarterback Bryce Young throughout the game. While the focus will be on the linebackers, Sieler can easily get involved in the fun and get to Young himself. At a minimum, he will likely assist in cleaning up a sack, giving him 0.5 sacks and the over.
Jason Sanders, 7.5 kicking points
Over: -125; Under: -105
Assuming this is a blowout, Sanders should have plenty of opportunities to put up points. Miami has been great at getting into the endzone and not settling for field goals this year, and this bet likely needs at least a field goal to make it to the over - unless Miami has another ridiculously high-scoring game in them this year - but we will assume they get it done for Sanders.