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Week 1 NFL lines and picks

NFL: AUG 27 Preseason - Eagles at Dolphins Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Buenas tardes, mis amigos, and welcome to another season of NFL picks here on the Phinsider. I’m going to go with a slightly different format this year, picking five games across the league that I like and also offering a prediction on the Dolphins line for the week. Will tally them separately and see how I did at the end of the season.

With that being said, let’s get to Week 1 action...

Patriots at DOLPHINS (-3.5)

The field goal and a hook normally makes me nervous, but I feel like a new day is coming in south Florida, and that will start with a convincing win over a good, but overmatched Patriots squad. The Fins’ red zone defense shines, and the Tua/Hill/Waddle triumvirate has a strong first game in the Mike McDaniel era. Miami 24, New England 16.

Rest of the league

RAVENS (-6.5) at Jets

It’s the Joe Flacco show in New York while Zach Wilson is on the mend, and his first test is a loaded Ravens defense. Baltimore’s secondary was insanely banged up last year, but they’re healthy and should feast on a Jets offense that is still a long ways from being good.

49ers at BEARS (+7)

Bears catching a full tuddie at home against an inexperienced QB without one of his best weapons (George Kittle)? I mean, alright. I think the Bears hang and make this a game, so I’ll take the points here.

SAINTS (-5.5) at Falcons

Saints defense suffered some losses in the preseason, but they’re still good enough to shut down a one-trick pony Falcons offense. Saints open the season with a double-digit win on the road.

Browns at PANTHERS (pick)

After the insane offseason that was that of the Cleveland Browns, suddenly the best quarterback for this game shifted from their locker room to that of the Carolina Panthers. Baker Mayfield to DJ Moore should be a solid connection this season, and that with Christian McCaffrey - who was removed from the injury report yesterday - will be too much for the Browns on Sunday.

Packers at Vikings (OVER 46.5)

This is one of the tightest spreads of the weekend, but I figured this point total would be closer to 50 than this. Instead, a 27-20 score would get over the mark. I think the Vikings will be aggressive through the air, and that will force the Packers to keep pace.