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2022 Miami Dolphins schedule: Predicting wins based on betting odds

NFL: Miami Dolphins OTA Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Are the 2022 Miami Dolphins headed to the playoffs, making the postseason for the first time since 2016? Could they even go on to win a playoff game for the first time since 2000? While the team is currently in their offseason training program and only starting to get ready for the season, there is plenty of talk and analysis about what this season could be - for the Dolphins and for all of the NFL.

The Dolphins, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, are currently listed with a nine-win over/under mark for the season. Can a 9&8 season - the same record they had last year - be enough to push the team into the postseason?

How does that nine-win mark match up when you take a look at the weekly odds for each of the Dolphins games? When the schedule was released, we already looked at the Dolphins Week 1 contest, a home game against the New England Patriots. DraftKings Sportsbook saw that game opening with the Dolphins favored by three points and it has not moved since then. Using the opening odds for each of the games, we take a look at how DraftKings thinks the Dolphins season could play out.

Week 1
Sep. 11, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3)

As we said, the Dolphins are favored to win this game. They visited the Patriots in Week 1 last year, a game they won before going on a seven-game losing streak. According to the oddsmakers, the Dolphins again win in Week 1, then see some losses start to pile up...

Record: 1-0

Week 2
Sep. 18, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Miami Dolphins (+4) at Baltimore Ravens

This is actually a little closer line than I expected to see. Miami is 7-10 all-time (including playoffs) against the Ravens, and, despite winning last year, they have lost eight of the last ten meetings. The Ravens look set to rebound after a rough 2021 season, so if the Dolphins want to prove they are among the AFC elite for this year, an early upset of the Ravens might be a necessity.

Record: 1-1

Week 3
Sep. 25, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

Even with the first meeting between the AFC East rivals in 2022 in Miami, the Dolphins are clearly going to be considered an underdog here. A 3.5-point spread is probably a little generous and this will likely grow as we get closer to the game itself. Like with the Ravens game, if the Dolphins want to gain early-season credibility, an upset against the Bills would be a huge statement.

Record: 1-2

Week 4
Sep. 29, 2022, 8:15 p.m. Eastern (TNF)
Miami Dolphins (+4) at Cincinnati Bengals

A Thursday night away game always causes problems for teams. Add in the Dolphins facing off against a second-straight division winner from 2021, and this is a tough spot. The Bengals’ win total is set at 10 games for this year, making them the favorites to win the AFC North again this year. Another tough early contest for Miami.

Record: 1-3

Week 5
Oct. 9, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets

After a three-game losing streak, the Dolphins head to visit the Jets in Week 5. Could this be the remedy to a rough early season? According to the odds, Miami comes away with the win, albeit with a little closer result than the team would like.

Record: 2-3

Week 6
Oct. 16, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-3)

The Dolphins climb back to .500 with a second-straight win as the Vikings visit South Florida. Miami is only favored by the standard three-point home-field advantage, which would seem to mean the oddsmakers see these two teams as fairly even. Given Minnesota’s win total is also set at nine games, it makes sense.

Record: 3-3

Week 7
Oct. 23, 2022, 8:20 p.m. Eastern (SNF)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)

Outside of the one mandatory Thursday night appearance every team has during the season, the Dolphins’ only other primetime appearance this year is this game. The league will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Dolphins’ 1972 undefeated season during this game. Can Miami use that celebration to spur them to a third-straight victory? The odds give the Dolphins the edge.

Record: 4-3

Week 8
Oct. 30, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Detroit Lions

The AFC East faces the NFC North this year, with the Dolphins set to visit Detroit and Chicago as a part of that slate of games. As the schedule unfolds this year, the Dolphins meet those two teams in back-to-back weeks, starting in Week 8 at the Lions. Miami is favored to beat Detroit and move to two-games over .500 as they go on a four-game win streak.

Record: 5-3

Week 9
Nov. 6, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Chicago Bears

The second half of the pairing has the Dolphins at the Bears in Week 9, again favored to win the game. This moves Miami to 6-3 on the season on the strength of a five-game winning streak.

Record: 6-3

Week 10
Nov. 13, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins

The questions about Deshaun Watson’s availability have kept DraftKings Sportsbook from posting odds for the Browns. We will count this game as a tie until the odds are updated.

Record: 6-3-1

Week 11

Week 12
Nov. 27, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-7)

Miami’s largest spread of the season actually favors them, which seems strange. The Texans come to Miami, but they are facing a big number when it comes to the spread.

Record: 7-3-1

Week 13
Dec. 4, 2022, 4 p.m. Eastern
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are favored by just over the homefield advantage mark, which means the oddsmakers see this game as a pretty close matchup. Can Mike McDaniel surprise Kyle Shanahan after years of being his protege?

Record: 7-4-1

Week 14
Dec. 11, 2022, 4 p.m. Eastern
Miami Dolphins (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

All the talk of Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert pre-draft included oh, so many Dolphins fans saying Herbert was just Ryan Tannehill 2.0. Now, the fan base loves to say Miami screwed up and should have selected Herbert. How will this meeting in California play out? In LA’s favor according to the odds.

Record: 7-5-1

Week 15
Dec. 17 or 18, 2022, Time TBD
Miami Dolphins (+6) at Buffalo Bills

The second meeting of the Bills and Dolphins this year is uglier for Miami, according to the oddsmakers. A winter game in Buffalo does not exactly scream the Dolphins’ forte.

Record: 7-6-1

Week 16
Dec. 25, 2022, 1 p.m. Eastern
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (+1)

This game only being a one-point line seems like a gift for Miami. Like a Christmas gift. Could the Dolphins be this close to the Packers come December? It goes down as a loss in our standings, but at only one point, this is a close outcome right now.

Record: 7-7-1

Week 17
Jan. 1, 2023, 1 p.m. Eastern
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) at New England Patriots

Miami last lost to the Patriots in Week 1 of the 2020 season. Counting the Week 1 game this would end a four-game win streak over the Patriots. The Dolphins need to find a way to win this game if they want to make the postseason in this scenario.

Record: 7-8-1

Week 18
Jan. 8, 2023, Time TBD
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5)

The Dolphins close the season at home against the Jets. After a five-game losing streak, Miami needs this win to keep them from having a losing season, pending the results of the Browns game. The Dolphins are 5.5-point favorites, allowing them to come in at .500 on the year - likely missing the playoffs.

Record: 8-8-1

Where do you see upsets this year? Can the Dolphins pull off a winning record? Can they reach 10 or 11 wins? Can they challenge for the AFC East crown?

2022 Miami Dolphins Schedule

Week Opponent Date/Time Channel Results Record
Week Opponent Date/Time Channel Results Record
Week 1 vs. New England Patriots Sunday, 9/11, 1 p.m. CBS W 20-7 1-0
Week 2 at Baltimore Ravens Sunday, 9/18, 1 p.m. CBS W 42-38 2-0
Week 3 vs. Buffalo Bills Sunday, 9/25, 1 p.m. CBS W 21-19 3-0
Week 4 at Cincinnati Bengals Thursday, 9/29, 8:15 p.m. Amazon Prime L 15-27 3-1
Week 5 at New York Jets Sunday, 10/9, 1 p.m. CBS L 17-40 3-2
Week 6 vs. Minnesota Vikings Sunday, 10/16, 1 p.m. FOX L 16-24 3-3
Week 7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday, 10/23, 8:20 p.m. NBC W 16-10 4-3
Week 8 at Detroit Lions Sunday, 10/30, 1 p.m. CBS W 31-27 5-3
Week 9 at Chicago Bears Sunday, 11/6, 1 p.m. CBS W 35-32 6-3
Week 10 vs. Cleveland Browns Sunday, 11/13, 1 p.m. CBS W 39-17 7-3
Week 11 Bye
Week 12 vs. Houston Texans Sunday, 11/27, 1 p.m. CBS W 30-15 8-3
Week 13 at San Francisco 49ers Sunday, 12/4, 4:05 p.m. FOX L 17-33 8-4
Week 14 at Los Angeles Chargers Sunday, 12/11, 4:05 p.m. CBS L 17-23 8-5
Week 15 at Buffalo Bills Saturday, 12/17, 8 p.m. NFL Network L 29-32 8-6
Week 16 vs. Green Bay Packers Sunday, 12/25, 1 p.m. FOX L 20-26 8-7
Week 17 at New England Patriots Sunday, 1/1, 1 p.m. CBS L 21-23 8-8
Week 18 vs. New York Jets Sunday, 1/8, 1 p.m. FOX W 11-6 9-8*
Wildcard at Buffalo Bills Sunday, 1/15, 1 p.m. CBS
*Playoffs Clinched