It’s becoming groundhog day here with Friday picks, as I turned in yet another 3-3 week last week. The Dolphins let me down, and my record for Fins’ picks for the season fell to 6-6. I managed to go 3-2 around the league, but I have a lot of work to do to improve my record in the right direction towards the Mendoza line.
Why not go 6-0 this week? Here’s this week’s picks...
Miami Dolphins picks (6-6 on the season)
MIAMI (-3.5) at Los Angeles
Last week was a challenge for the Miami offensive line, with Nick Bosa racking up 3 sacks in a 33-17 loss to San Francisco. The Fins would normally be facing the other Bosa brother this week - Joey - but he’s on injured reserve, so that’s a big break. In fact, LA’s other defensive stud will likely be out this week, with star safety Derwin James listed as doubtful for the game. The Chargers are a sieve against the run, so look for the Dolphins to make a concerted effort to take the pressure off the passing game by getting Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, Jr. a lot of touches. Dolphins win by a touchdown.
Rest of the league (27-38 on the season)
NY Jets at Buffalo; OVER 43
The Jets’ offense has come to life with Mike White under center and with Zonovan Knight giving the running game some pop. I think they find a way to score enough points to push this game over the total while hanging with the Bills for 60 minutes.
TEASER: Houston at DALLAS (-11); KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at Denver
The Cowboys should roll over a Texans team that is switching back to Davis Mills at QB (who will also be missing injured WRs Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins on Sunday). The Chiefs should win comfortably. This makes both of those things a little bit easier.
PARLAY (-175): BUFFALO vs. Jets; DALLAS vs. Houston; KANSAS CITY at Denver
A lot of heavy favorites here, but I don’t really see an upset happening among these three games, so I’ll lay down getting less than an even money pay off.
TEASER: Tampa Bay at SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5); UNDER 43
This is a game of two teams with two great defenses, so this feels like the first to 20 points wins. I don’t know which team that will be, as the Bucs’ offense is mired in predictability and mediocrity under offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. I’ll take the Niners’ home field advantage and 2.5 points here.
NEW ENGLAND (-2) at Arizona
I trust the Patriots defense here more than anything. Pats bottle up Kyler Murray and the Cards offense and get out of the desert with a 1-score win.