Week 17 NFL lines and picks

Well, there it is again. A 3-3 week. For what feels like the umpteenth time in a row. But hey, I finally ended my slide of picking the Dolphins wrong. Small miracles. I hit both teasers, but whiffed on Detroit and Chicago, who laid major eggs in their respective matchups. The Falcons also fell a tad short of their mark.

Why not go 6-0 this week? On with Week 17 picks...

Miami Dolphins picks (7-8 on season)

Miami vs New England; UNDER 41 points

In cold New England, with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, I don’t see the Dolphins passing game working well. And while the Fins have been running the ball VERY well the last two weeks (7.5 and 4.6 ypc against Bills and Packers, respectively), it’ll be tougher to do so with a more limited passing game. I also don’t trust Mac Jones to do much down the field against Miami. Translation: this is a slow, grind-it-out game that doesn’t quite reach the total.

Rest of the league (35-45 on season)

TEASER: SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5); UNDER 48

This is a heck of a spot to throw Jarrett Stidham into. No defense is playing better than SF right now. Niners score a lot, Raiders don’t, and this slides under a shifted total.

MONEYLINE PARLAY (-106): NY GIANTS (vs Indy); KANSAS CITY (vs Denver); SAN FRANCISCO (at Las Vegas)

The concern here is the Giants against Indy, but the Colts have so little on offense right now regardless of who Jeff Saturday throws in there at QB. I think they find a way to get it done, and the other two games are very likely wins.

CAROLINA (+3.5) at Tampa Bay

No teaser needed here. If the Bucs win, it will be by the skin of their teeth as usual, so 3.5 should be enough of a cushion for Carolina.

TEASER: Buffalo at CINCINNATI (+7); OVER 43.5

The Bengals at home getting a touchdown? And needing to reach just a 24-20 score? That all seems very achievable.

NEW YORK JETS (-2) at Seattle

Mike White is back this week, and that will provide a spark to a Jets team that has played very well on the defensive side of the ball. Jets win and set up a very interesting Week 18 tilt with the Dolphins in South Florida.