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Dolphins open as favorites over Patriots, see line flip after Tua Tagovailoa injury news

The Miami Dolphins control their path to the postseason, and it starts with an AFC East rivalry match with the New England Patriots in Week 17.

New England Patriots Vs Miami Dolphins At Hard Rock Stadium Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Update: The Miami Dolphins announced on Monday quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is in the concussion protocols after experiencing potential concussion symptoms. While the team has not said Tagovailoa sustained a concussion during the team's Week 16 game against the Green Bay Packers, the quarterback will have to clear all protocols based on the various symptoms he demonstrated. That news immediately impacted the odds for the game.

The line originally opened on Sunday with the Dolphins favored by two points, according to the oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook. The line moved from Sunday to Monday morning down to the Dolphins favored by 1.5 points. Now, with the Tagovailoa injury news, the line has flipped, with the Patriots favored by 2.5 points. The Dolphins are now +125 for the straight-up win on the moneyline, while the Patriots are -145. The point-total dropped from 43.5 to 42.5.

We will continue to monitor the odds throughout the week as more on Tagovailoa’s injury and his availability become known.

The Miami Dolphins lost their fourth-straight game on Sunday, dropping a home game against the Green Bay Packers 26-20 as the team stumbled their way through the second half. Miami started December 8-3, but now find themselves 8-7 on the year and struggling to get back to winning football. They will need to figure something out this week as the team begins a swing through the AFC East over the next two weeks, looking to complete their 2022 rivalry series with the New England Patriots and New York Jets as the season comes to an end.

That starts on Sunday when Miami visits New England. The Dolphins beat the Patriots in Miami back in Week 1. Now, 16 weeks later and as the calendar moves to 2023, they will look to complete the season sweep and take a major step toward claiming a playoff berth.

Miami’s easiest path to the postseason is to win both of their remaining games. The Dolphins can also clinch a spot with one win over the last two weeks, and one loss from either the Jets against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 or the Patriots against the Buffalo Bills in Week 18.

According to the oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook, Miami may have to wait until Week 18 to get their playoff passport stamped. The Dolphins have opened as road favorites according to the odds. On Sunday, the game started with Miami listed as a two-point favorite over the Patriots, a line that has moved to 1.5 points overnight. The Dolphins are -125 on the moneyline to outright win, while the Patriots are +105. The point total is set at 43.5 points.

The other half of what Miami would need for a Week 17 clinching scenario, the Seahawks beating the Jets, is not listed in Miami’s favor. The Seahawks are currently one-point home underdogs to the Jets.

If the odds hold and the Dolphins beat the Patriots while the Jets are victorious against the Seahawks, the Jets at Dolphins game in Week 18 becomes a de facto playoff game, with the winner making the postseason and the loser going home for the offseason.

Kickoff for the Dolphins at Patriots will be Sunday, Jan. 1, at 1 p.m. ET from Foxborough’s Gillette Stadium. The Jets at Seahawks will kickoff at 4:05 p.m. ET that afternoon from Seattle’s Lumen Field.