Week 16 NFL lines and picks

Welp, once again, a 3-3 week was the result of my picks. It indeed is starting to feel like groundhog day. I’ve been on the positive side of the ledger in recent weeks for around the league picks, while I’m slipping on my Dolphins picks. Let’s see if we can break that trend this week.

Miami Dolphins picks (6-8 on season)

GREEN BAY (+3.5) at Miami

In case you haven’t noticed (and that would be understandable, given what a lost season it’s been in Green Bay), the Packers are finally starting to play some solid football. That all being said, what really caught my attention last week in Buffalo was Miami’s very effective ground game. Miami’s offensive line was physical, the Bills’ d-line was on its heels, and Raheem Mostert was a force with the ball in his hands. Hopefully Mike McDaniel doesn’t get cute and stays with what worked very well last week. But the Packers’ offense has seemed to figure things out, and all hands should be on deck at the skill positions on Sunday (with T David Bakhtiari being the notable absence). I don’t know who wins, so I’ll take the team getting 3.5 points here.

Around the league (33-42 on season)

TEASER: Tampa Bay at ARIZONA (+13.5); LA CHARGERS (+2) at Colts

The Bucs can’t blow ANYBODY out, and that will include the Trace-McSorley-led Cardinals on Sunday night in prime time. They might win, but they’ll continue to look like they’re playing with two left shoes on their feet. Meanwhile, the Chargers should win against the since-eliminated Colts, and this move gives a little bit of a buffer.

ATLANTA (+6.5) at Baltimore

It’s another week of Tyler Huntley at the helm for what’s been a broken Baltimore offense. Meanwhile, the Falcons discovered last week (way too late) that Tyler Algeier is really darned good when you hand him the ball. This will be a low-scoring, close game, and Atlanta getting a near touchdown is way too much. I’ll take the points here.

TEASER: HOUSTON (+9) at Tennessee; SEATTLE (+16) at Kansas City

Malik Willis isn’t ready to lead Tennessee to a convincing win against anyone, so pushing this margin out to 9 seems pretty safe. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will find a way to keep this inside 3 scores in Arrowhead.

DETROIT (-2.5) at Carolina

I’m borrowing trouble here by taking the Lions and laying points, but man, their run defense has been outstanding lately. They should be able to bottle up D’Onta Foreman and the Panther ground game and force the game into Sam Darnold’s hands. Advantage: Lions.

Buffalo at CHICAGO (+8)

It’s gonna be cold and windy in Chicago This feels like a physical, grind-it-out type of game, and the Bears will find a way to hang around, even if they don’t win. They’ve lost close games at home against the Fins and Eagles, so it’s not crazy to think they do it again Sunday.