Week 12 saw mixed results, as usual. After a slow start, a couple of teasers hit, and the Chargers came back on the Cardinals, which delivered a 3-3 overall week. The Dolphins completely quit playing competent football in the second half last week, but not quite enough to where Houston +14 was a cover.
Let’s do better this week. On with this week’s picks...
Miami Dolphins picks (6-5 on the season)
MIAMI (+4) at San Francisco
I’m a little worried about what Nick Bosa and the 49ers pass rush will do against the Dolphins’ front, especially if Terron Armstead is out or limited. That said, if anyone knows how to game plan for the 49ers, it’s Mike McDaniel. And I don’t think that will be a negligible advantage. He’ll know how to take advantage of the Niners defense with his weapons, and he definitely knows Kyle Shanahan’s offense and how to prep for it. When you can hit plays in the passing game like Miami can, you can win. I don’t know if they do here, but with the aforementioned advantages in preparing for this game, I’ll take the 4 points and find out.
Rest of the league (24-36)
NY Jets at MINNESOTA (-3)
1:00 pm Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense will give the Vikings an early lead, and the Mike White-led Jets won’t quite be able to keep up.
TEASER: PITTSBURGH (+7) at Atlanta; OVER 37
I think the Steelers are starting to put it together a little bit over the last few weeks, as Kenny Pickett gets more comfortable. The Falcons can’t seem to blow anyone out, so this shift accounts for a game that will be close and where the offenses will put up enough, but not a lot.
TEASER: SEATTLE (-1) at LA Rams; INDY (+16.5) at Dallas
The Rams are a hot mess, especially with both Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald out for this game. Seattle basically just needs to win here. Indy isn’t nearly 3 scores worse than the Cowboys, so I’ll take that cushion here on the road.
TEASER: SAINTS (+9.5); UNDER 46.5
These teams are absolutely anemic offensively. Add that to the fact the Bucs can’t blow out anyone lately, and this smells like a close, low scoring affair.
MONEYLINE PARLAY (-118): BALTIMORE (-410) over Denver; PHILLY (-205) over Tennessee
Lamar Jackson will play, and he should put up enough offensively to overcome a broken Denver team. I trust the Eagles’ run defense to slow Derrick Henry enough to get the win at home.