Week 8 was another middling week at 3-3. The Fins covered by a hook 31-27, so that moves me to 5-3 on the season in Dolphins picks. So yay for that, I suppose. Arizona couldn’t find a late touchdown against Minnesota and Jacksonville blew a double-digit lead in London, so it was another 2-3 week around the league.
Why not will all six picks this week? Let’s do it.
Miami Dolphins picks (5-3 on season)
MIAMI (-4) at Chicago
Well, it wasn’t a pretty performance last week, but the Dolphins found a way to come back from being down big thanks to its talented trio going off again. The Cowboys dismantled the Bears last week, but it was Tony Pollard and the ground game that did a number on a Bears defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league. The wind is a little bit of a concern today - expected to be upwards of 30 mph gusts - so it may be a case of leaning on the running game and designing plays to get the ball in the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in space. In any event, Miami’s offensive line (which is producing 3.9 yards per carry on the ground this season; 6th-worst in the league) will need to knock open some holes and help Miami produce on the ground, and I think they will. I’ll lay the four points here and take the good guys on the road.
Rest of the league (15-25 on the season)
TEASER: Las Vegas at JACKSONVILLE (+8.5); OVER 42
The Jags burned me last week, and here I am, going back to the well on them again. God help me. I just think these teams get into the 20s in a close game, so I’ll take the extra security here on the Jags and the over.
TEASER: BUFFALO (-5) at NY Jets; Carolina at CINCINNATI (-1)
The Bills should win today by at least a touchdown - I feel pretty comfortable about that - but I’m less sure about the Bengals, so I’ll tease both down and hope Cincy can deliver.
Baltimore at NEW ORLEANS (+2)
The Ravens beat the Bucs last week, and I feel even worse about them than I did the week before. They looked like a not very good football team. The Saints made an emphatic statement last week against the Raiders and should thrive again being at home in front of a raucous crowd on Monday Night Football. Saints plus the two here.
A Los Angeles special. I think the Falcons can win this outright, so I’ll gladly take 9 points here. Meanwhile, two hot messes meet up in Tampa, and honestly, there isn’t an NFL team the Bucs would blow out right now, so the Rams getting 9 points seems silly here.
MONEYLINE PARLAY (-101): NEW ENGLAND (-225) vs. Indianapolis; BUFFALO (-540) at NY Jets; KANSAS CITY (-610) vs. Tennessee
This is a handsome little parlay, as I don’t see the Pats losing at home to Sam Ehlinger and the Colts. I’d also be shocked if the Bills or Chiefs lost in these spots. For an even money payout, this seems worth the risk here.