Week 12 NFL lines and picks

Exhale...finally. A 3-2 week gave me a winning mark for the first time in a good while, at least in bets made around the league. Kansas City’s game-winning late score turned out to bet the winning pick. The Dolphins return to action this week, so as usual, I’ll make a pick on both the Dolphins and five picks around the league.

On with Week 12 picks...

Miami Dolphins picks (6-4 on the season)

HOUSTON (+14) at Miami

I don’t really like spotting the Texans here two touchdowns, as I really don’t know for sure what Kyle Allen will bring as the new Texans QB. Davis Mills was simply bad and the offense was not capable with him at the helm. I think the move to Allen will be somewhat of an improvement, and the opportunity for a back door cover makes me like the Texans with the points here. Fins win, Texans cover.

Rest of the league (21-34 on the season)

MONEYLINE PARLAY (+177): KANSAS CITY over LA Rams; TENNESSEE over Cincinnati; MIAMI over Houston

I feel like two of the three are very likely to happen, with Kansas City and Miami both favored by 2+ touchdowns. That sets up nicely for Tennessee to spring the upset and pay off at 1.7 to 1. That’s a nice investment if the Titans can pull this off, and I think they will.

ATLANTA (+4) at Washington

The Falcons have found their identity as a physical run-first team, and even though the Commanders rank in the top 10 in the league in rushing defense, I think they will still find success. The Falcons have been a team in a lot of close games this year, and Sunday will be no different.

TEASER: BALTIMORE (+2.5) at Jacksonville; OVER 37.5

The Ravens’ struggled vs. Carolina last week, but the NFL is a week-to-week animal. As such, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews should foster their connection at the expense of the Jags. Just shifting the numbers a little bit here to account for any struggle to reach a combined 40.

TEASER: Tampa Bay at CLEVELAND (+9.5); UNDER 48

I think Cleveland will do a decent job against the Bucs’ defensive front, as they run well vs. most teams and the Bucs will likely be without defensive stalwart Vita Vea. The Browns’ time-consuming offense will limit Brady, and the Bucs’ dink-and-dunk offense isn’t currently the kind that’s going to rip off long touchdowns. As such, I see a close, lower-scoring game, and I’m accounting for both even more here with a line shift.

LA CHARGERS (+3.5) at Arizona

The Chargers lost a heartbreaker last week against the Chiefs, but they looked much better (and have looked much better lately) than the Cardinals, who sit in the midst of a lost season after getting obliterated by the 49ers in Mexico. I trust Justin Herbert much more this weekend than the struggling Cardinals offense.