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Week 11 NFL lines and picks

Cleveland Browns v Miami Dolphins Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Hello 2-4, my old friend. I’ve come to talk to you again.

Yes, it’s time to deal with the hangover of YET ANOTHER 2-4 week. But no, I don’t quit here at The Phinsider. I take my medicine and keep on going. The Bucs’ Rachaad White was headed for what appeared to be a touchdown in the final minutes of a 21-16 win, but smartly went down, thus killing my teaser. Meanwhile, where White left points on the field, the Packers - who have been offensively anemic all season - suddenly found said points and then some in a relatively surprising 31-28 shootout against the Cowboys, killing another teaser. And the Bears missed an extra point and killed what I thought was a great moneyline parlay by losing to the Lions 31-30. You just can’t make this stuff up.

That all being said, on with this week’s picks.

NO MIAMI DOLPHINS PICKS THANKS TO THE BYE WEEK (but I’m 6-4 on the season picking Miami against the spread, so yay for small victories)

Rest of the league (18-32 on season)

CAROLINA (+13) at Baltimore

I know the Panthers went and laid an absolute stinker in Cincinnati, but they’ve otherwise been plucky the last month. They’ve found a bit of an offensive resurgence on the legs of D’Onta Foreman. I think they find a way to keep it inside of two touchdowns on the road this week.

San Francisco at ARIZONA (+8)

I’m not sure if Kyler Murray plays, but I still don’t care. This game always feels like it’s competitive, especially when the teams play in Glendale. The Cardinals offense is a little more lively with DeAndre Hopkins back in the fold, Colt McCoy is decently capable, and Conner ran well last week. I’ll take the 8 points here at home.

TEASER: KANSAS CITY (pick) at LA Chargers; OVER 45

Love the Chiefs as a straight up pick, and these teams will combine for more than a 24-21 type of score.

TEASER: Dallas at MINNESOTA (+7.5); OVER 41.5

I honestly think Minnesota should probably be the favorite here at home, but hey, I’ll take a touchdown-plus on a tease. The Cowboys managed to turn last week’s tilt against the Packers into an unlikely 59 total points, so I think they can at least hit 42 with the Vikes this week.

WASHINGTON (-3) at Houston

I’ve been a Taylor Heinicke fan since I saw him nearly knock the Bucs out of the playoffs in 2020 with a Herculean effort. He clearly gives the Commanders a better chance to win than Carson Wentz does, and since Ron Rivera is sticking with Heinicke on Sunday, they find a way to get it done again on the road.