Holding the Lead, Part Deux

Last week, I posted some data analyzing how Tua does in contested games compared to how he does sitting on a lead. I took his stats after the 1st 2nd-half possession in games where the Dolphins led the entire half and segregated them from the rest of the stats. My theory was that Tua, McDaniel and the Dolphins let up with a 2nd-half lead, and that they shouldn’t.

As I explained there, I divided after the 1st possession of the 2nd half because of a pattern Tua experienced at Alabama, but I think it's generally true pretty much everywhere that you don't take your foot off the gas on the very first 2nd-half possession when you're straight out of the locker room. (You can check that fanpost out at if you are interested.)

For the original post, I found 3 games with numbers to crunch. Well guess what, Sunday was a 4th game where the Fins led the entire second half, so I will update the numbers. As it turns out, the theory still holds up.

Here are Tua's stats after the first possession of the 2nd half in games where the Fins led the whole 2nd half:

Pats: 9-14, 84 yards, no TDs, no picks.

Steelers: 4-9, 33 yards, no TDs, no picks.

Bears: 8-15, 100 yards, 1 TD, no picks.

Browns: 8-12, 92 yards, 1 TD, no picks. (This was the best Tua and the Dolphins' air game have done in this situation, and it's not so bad but it's still not up to snuff with the rest of the games.)

Total: 29-50, 309 yards, 2 TDs, no picks. Completion percentage is 58.0%, yards per attempt is 6.2, and his passer rating is 89.5.

Subtract those stats from his total stats and you get Tua's performance when the Fins are NOT sitting on a 2nd-half lead.

Take out the sitting-on-a-lead second halves and Tua is 149-200, 1955 yards, 16 TDs and 3 picks. Completion percentage is 74.5%, yards per attempt is 9.8 and his passer rating is 125.3 (!!!). The best passer rating EVER was Aaron Rodgers in 2011, 122.5.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.