Thanks for nothing, Buffalo.
The Bills’ implosion against the Jets last week took a potential winning week and turned it into another familiar 2-4 mark. The Bills blew up a moneyline parlay that otherwise would have covered, and a teaser paired with the Bengals easily covering -1 against Carolina. But hey, at least it couldn’t have happened to a better team, I guess.
On with this week’s picks...
Miami Dolphins picks (5-4 on season)
Cleveland at MIAMI (-3.5)
Look, there’s no doubt that Nick Chubb and a talented Cleveland offensive line pose a challenge. A big one. The belief here is that Miami’s offense relegates the game script to the Browns chasing points and putting the game more on the shoulders of Jacoby Brissett than Chubb’s legs. And the opportunity is certainly there today for that to happen. Miami’s passing game is humming, and the Browns’ defense ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL with 6.9 yards allowed per pass attempt. Hill gets over 100 receiving yards easily today, continuing what could be a historic season in the making, and Miami gets up early and holds on to narrowly cover the field goal and a hook spread.
Rest of the league (17-28 on season)
TEASER: SEATTLE (+8.5) vs. Tampa Bay; OVER 39
I THINK the Seahawks will win, as they’ve been playing better football the past 6 weeks than Tampa Bay. I also THINK these teams will score some points this morning. This shift really makes me comfortable both ways, so I’ll take it.
TEASER: Houston at NY GIANTS (+1); UNDER 47.5
The Giants will win, and the anemic Texans’ offense won’t do their part to keep up on the scoreboard, as the Giants rank 8th in the league in scoring defense. This just takes the edge off the possibility of a close, competitive game.
TEASER: Dallas at Green Bay: UNDER 50.5; Indianapolis at Las Vegas; UNDER 47
The Packers’ offense is such a wreck right now, but their defense has been solid. Likewise, the Colts are a massive disaster this week, with Jeff Saturday being hired as interim head coach in a shocking move by Jim Irsay. The Colts will struggle to score points, and the reeling Raiders will as well, but...
Indianapolis at LAS VEGAS (-4)
....the Raiders will have an easier time finding opportunities on the plus side of the field. Vegas’ defense will overwhelm the hapless Colts, as the Raiders win this by double digits.
MONEYLINE PARLAY (+107): CHICAGO (-145) over Detroit; KANSAS CITY (-435) over Jacksonville
The Bears’ offense has come alive under the emergence of Justin Fields as a true playmaker, which Dolphin fans got to see up close and personal last week. He’ll have another strong day against the reeling Lions today. And that will be the toughest hurdle to overcome in this parlay, as the Chiefs should take care of the Jags at home.