Week 5 NFL Lines and Picks

Oof. A 2-4 mark for the week moved my overall record to 10-14 on the year. A push-loser on a Pats-Packers; Chiefs-Bucs teaser (thanks to Romeo Doubs dropping a sure-fire winning touchdown) and the injury to Tua and resulting offensive struggles were crucial swings in the wrong direction (and a blow to the good guys in aqua and orange, to speak the obvious). Not what I had hoped for, but onward I push.

Overall season mark (10-14)

Miami Dolphins picks (3-1 on season)

MIAMI (-3.5) at NY Jets

A banged up secondary and a Teddy Bridgewater-led offense with two gimpy stud WRs naturally gives me pause, and honestly should have me picking the other way. But the Dolphins have had the Jets’ number in recent years and I have that little faith in Zach Wilson, so I’m gonna lay the points here and take the Dolphins on the road.

Rest of the league (7-13 on season)

Atlanta at TAMPA BAY (-10)

Laying double digits is asking a lot, but the Bucs are going to feast on Sunday. Chris Godwin is getting more and more healthy, and he has absolutely destroyed the Falcons in 9 career games (9 touchdowns). The Falcons showcased their offense last week on the ground, but the Bucs normally are a brick wall against the run, and they bounce back from a poor showing last Sunday here.

Detroit at NEW ENGLAND (-3)

The Lions are scrappy, but the Patriots still showed their resolve regardless of who was playing at QB, as Bailey Zappe darned near pulled off the upset at Lambeau in relief last week. I trust the New England ground attack here to control the game and get the win.

Teaser (6-point shift; ties lose): TAMPA BAY (-4) vs. Atlanta; KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. Las Vegas

Doubling down on the Bucs here, and making the Chiefs a near pick seems like a lock. Kansas City seems to have found their offense after 4 weeks, while the Raiders are still a mess.

Teaser #2: MINNESOTA (-1.5) vs. Chicago; LA Chargers vs. Cleveland OVER 41

The Vikes are a weird, streaky team...kind of like their QB Kirk Cousins. They could blow them out, or they could escape by a FG. Or...lose. I’ll give myself the first two options here. I also think both the Chargers and Browns are more than good enough offensively to hit 42 combined points Sunday.

Teaser #3: JACKSONVILLE (-1) vs. Houston; TITANS (+4.5) at Washington

Yep, going to roll with three teasers this week. The Jags have been playing like they’re the real deal this year, especially defensively. Man, what a surprise they’ve been. I’ll tease this down to one to avoid getting burned on a scare, and also give the Titans 4.5 points in a game I think they win outright on the legs of Derrick Henry (or at least they should, as Washington has seen the wheels fall off lately).