Week 7 NFL lines and picks

Well, it’s been a year of 2-4 weeks, and that didn’t stop last week. Terrible showings by the Packers and Bucs sunk two teasers, but I did move to 4-2 ATS on Miami games. Time to roll up the sleeves and get back to work.

Miami Dolphins picks (4-2 on the season)

Pittsburgh at MIAMI (-7.5)

This is a lot of points to lay, as Pittsburgh showed last week against the Bucs that they still have a good enough roster to surprise even with a subpar QB room and a correspondingly-stagnant offense. However, where Tampa Bay inexplicably failed to take its shots downfield against the Steelers’ banged up secondary, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle will test them repeatedly and connect often on chunk plays. The Fins will jump out to a lead, and the limited Steeler passing game wont be able to keep up. Fins lay the 7.5 and cover.

Rest of the league (10-20)

NY JETS (-2) at Denver

At this point, Brett Rypien might be an upgrade over Russell Wilson, as insane as that sounds. In any event, neither are good enough to put up enough points to keep up with a Jets offense that’s starting to take strides forward.

KANSAS CITY (-1) at San Francisco

In what’s basically a pick, I’ll take Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy G any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. And……it’s Sunday.

Detroit at DALLAS (-6.5)

The Cowboys had been rolling before slipping against the Eagles, and now Dak is back. The Cowboys defense should also generate a ton of pressure on Jared Goff and force a few mistakes.

Chicago at NEW ENGLAND (-8)

Aside from a home stumble against Baltimore, the Pats defense has been solid. They’re middle of the league in rushing yards per game allowed, but 7th in scoring defense. Pats win a low scoring game here by two scores.

Cleveland at BALTIMORE (-6.5)

The Ravens have done a very nice job of building big leads, but not so much holding them. It’ll happen again Sunday, and the suddenly sputtering Cleveland offense won’t keep pace.