We hear this a lot. What is a players ceiling? Specifically, what is Tua's ceiling? Each position's ceiling is judged differently IMO. I judge a QB's ceiling not by does he make mistakes but rather can he make special plays when needed. Can he carry a team when it needs it. Can he elevate the players around him. A key stat for "ceiling" when it comes to QB's is 300yds & 3TD games. Those are games that the QB had to throw for a lot of yards to move the ball or was the QB able to put the ball in the endzone 3+ to win a game. So I did some comparables. I didn't want to go back too far because the game has changed so much over the past 5 years where rookie QB's can come in as rookies and play well from day 1... by year 2 dominate.
In a QB's first 2 years only. I did not account for how many games they played, just in their first 2 years in the league.
300yds throwing....3 or more TD's
Tua 3 ... 2
Herbert 16 ... 16
Burrow 11 ... 8
Mayfield 6 ... 7
Mahomes 10 ... 10 all in 1 year
Wentz 8 ... 6
Goff 5 ... 5
Watson 7 ... 8
Hurts 4* ... 5
Jackson 1* ... 9
Murray 8* ... 11
* doesn't account for their rushing yds which makes them dynamic
That's why I believe so many fans & talking media heads say that Tua is a limited QB with a low ceiling. Only 3 games with over 300yds passing and/or 2 games with 3 or more TD's... and we lost all of those games. Hurts has more than Tua in less games and fans question his ceiling or if he's even a long term starter. Mayfield is getting ran out of town because fans & media say he's holding the team back, question his ceiling & yet he is crushing Tua's big game stats. I think fans need to accept that Tua will never be elite. He will never be a top 10 QB in the NFL because of his limitations as a QB.... small, not athletic, not durable, weak arm... he can develop into a better processor and game manager yes. Tua can win a lot of games in the NFL yes. But I just don't see Tua carrying any team to the playoffs consistently or carrying a team through the playoffs.