North Dakota State Quarterback Trey Lance took to the field earlier today to showcase his skills in front of NFL coaches and evaluators at his Pro Day. Lance did not disappoint and left those in attendance (and watching worldwide) in awe.
But this isn’t about what Trey Lance can do for the Dolphins at the quarterback position.
No, this is about Trey Lance’s impressive Pro Day did for the #3 overall pick. After all, BEFORE today’s pro day in Fargo, North Dakota, it seemed like an excellent bet that Miami would trade back in the draft, acquiring another war chest of draft picks.
Now, it almost seems like a forgone conclusion.
According to Pro Football Network’s Benjamin Allbright, if teams want Trey Lance (or any QB for that matter), they will likely need to trade up with the Miami Dolphins at No.3.
Lance had a good workout.— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) March 12, 2021
If teams want him they'll need to trade to 3 though.
Now, this isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.
The truth is, most of us viewed a trade down as the Dolphins’ best and most likely outcome. However, what I’m most surprised about is that teams view Lance as a top-3 pick. Because there are some, like me, that think he might only be the fourth-best quarterback in this class.
(I have it ranked Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance, FWIW)
Nevertheless, the 2021 QB class is starting to look very good, especially for a team like the Dolphins looking to trade back with a QB-starved franchise.
What teams would be interested in the No.3 pick in the 2021 NFL draft?
For me, the most likely suitor was always the Carolina Panthers—who currently hold the 8th-overall pick. I believe that what Matt Rhule and his staff are building is special. And I can’t help but selfishly want to see Lance (or any young QB) in Joe Brady’s offense.
Sitting one spot behind the Panthers are the Denver Broncos, who may no longer be married to Drew Lock after a disappointing 2020 campaign. Could they be aggressive in trying to find the quarterback they’ve been desperately in need of since Elway retired?
Could the Philadelphia Eagles decide to get their QB in 2021 instead of waiting to see Hurts with a different supporting cast?
Heck, maybe the Atlanta Falcons fall in love and want to block a team from trading up. And we can’t rule out a team like San Francisco or Detroit. We don’t know how many teams will be involved, And as we learned over the years, there’s always a mystery team willing to pay top compensation.
How much would a team be willing to pay to trade up?
For decades, teams used Jimmy Johnson’s NFL Draft trade chart as gospel. But as we learned over the years, it’s nothing more than an outdated reference. A guideline. It has its flaws and should never be the be-all, end-all.
The chart, which can be found here, says that the #3 overall pick is worth 2200 points.
But how does the ammunition look for those teams listed above? Check it out.
Unfortunately, I’m unable to find the exact value of future first-round draft picks. Which, let's face it, if the Dolphins choose to trade down, we expect it to be for a future first-round draft pick in 2022 and then some.
(Unless, of course, the Carolina Panthers want to trade Christian McCaffrey. ;))
No one knows what’s going to happen over the next several months. In fact, the first and biggest domino (Deshaun Watson) needs to fall before we can truly evaluate which teams may be interested in the third-overall pick.
I’m also not convinced Trey Lance is the guy a team ultimately makes a move for.
But what I know is that Chris Grier and Brian Flores (
Bill O’Brien) have put the Dolphins in a great situation. And whether it’s a war chest of draft picks as we saw with the Laremy Tunsil trade or a modest trade down for a player of value, we should all #TrustTheProcess.
Do you think the Dolphins will trade down in next month’s draft? Who do you think is the most likely trade partner? What are your thoughts on Trey Lance and the 2021 draft class? Let us know in the comments section below!