It’s all over the place so I figured I’d give my thoughts on the matter because another “Should the Dolphins trade for Deshaun Watson” blog is what everybody needs right now. After this, I surely will be prompted to write the “Should Miami trade for Taylor Heinicke” because there’s enough moron energy out there calling for the Dolphins to do it.
How we got to this point is illustrated right here,
#Texans QB Deshaun Watson is extremely unhappy with the organization after owner Cal McNair informed him he would be involved in the GM and coach hiring process and provide feedback… but then did neither in the hire of GM Nick Caserio, sources say.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 8, 2021
Deshaun Watson, who seems like he’s taking his cues from how the NBA elite go about business, wanted to be discussed who his team, the Houston Texans, should bring in as their new GM. The Texans even told Watson they would do that, and they would take his input on who should replace Bill O'Brien. That didn’t happen when the Texans hired a new GM and this made Watson so upset, so outraged that he went to Twitter to let the world know how he felt.
This got everyone into a frenzy thinking that Deshaun Watson, a guy who’s deemed one of the best quarterbacks in the game who is only 25, might be available. And since, Watson is a talented NFL player, Miami Dolphin’s fans started losing their minds about the idea that their team could make an offer to the Texans.
But what about what Chris Grier said? Have we forgot about the etching in stone that he did when he said this:
Case closed right? I mean Grier is the GM of the Miami Dolphins and Brian Flores is the coach of the team and they are both conveying the message that Tua Tagovailoa is the starter next year and that’s that. There is no inconceivable way that you can go a different route once you say this. I know this because coaches and GMs aren’t allowed to lie because it’s written in the constitution, the Magna Carta, and the Dead Sea Scrolls.
I’m sorry that I had to show you this but I had to make you see that in fact that just because I high ranking person on a team says something doesn’t mean anything. When Grier said that Tua was the starter the next year, I’m sure he probably meant it. But we live in a different world than we did on January 5th and Deshaun Watson possibly, potentially, hypothetically, theoretically, might be in play.
Personally, I don’t think Watson is going anywhere. He’s too good and he’s making way too much money to move. Here’s the breakdown.
Deshaun Watson's contract, per OverTheCap pic.twitter.com/AFebvhHNKZ— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) January 7, 2021
And because I care, here’s a verbal breakdown of what it means if the Texans tried to move Watson. Courtesy of Pro Football Network;
Deshaun Watson signed a four-year, $156 million contract extension in September. At an average of $39 million per year, he’s the second-highest paid quarterback in the NFL. While that number is undoubtedly high, the salary cap situation can be managed.
The Texans would still be on the hook for $21.6 million in 2021, even if Watson isn’t on the team. With Watson on the team, their cap hit is set to be around $16 million, so trading Watson would add around $5.6 million in dead money to the 2021 salary cap. However, it would save the team significant money in 2022, 2023, and beyond.
For the team trading for Watson, the situation is slightly different. Watson would count just $10.54 million against their salary cap in 2021. That number would rise significantly in 2022 to $35 million and again to $37 million in 2023 before decreasing slightly to $32 million in each of the final two years of his contract. The hopes are that the league will be closer to normal circumstances in the 2021 season than they did in 2020. Therefore, the cap in 2022 and 2023 would be expected to rise above the 2021 figure, giving more flexibility to teams in the future.
Basically, the Texans would be on the hook for 21M this year if they tried to trade Watson.
I know the Dolphins have the assets, which is quite hilarious because those assets come from the Texans, who they fleeced when they Traded Laremy Tunsil. Tua was shaky this year even though he had the Arizona and Kansas City games, but does that mean that Flores and Grier would walk away from him and their plan because Watson might be available?
I actually, don’t think so and it’s more so of the second item I listed: their plan. Trading everything that you worked hard to acquire, I’m pretty sure, isn’t part of the plan to rebuild the Miami Dolphins. Now, I’m a man who believes that any plan that can’t be changed is a bad plan, but I’m still not convinced that this regime would get rid of all the draft picks that they earned. I could end up being wrong, but I don’t think I will be.
My overall point with all this is that though Tua was named the starter, you’d be foolish to think that Flores and Grier haven’t at least talked about it. That’s what every team does. It doesn’t mean they’ll do it but of course, they discuss it. You discuss it because Watson is awesome. Make no mistake, Watson is better than Tua, right now. It’s possible Watson will always be better.
Still, I’ll take the odds of this not happening.
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