We made it, y’all. We’ve navigated the apocalypse and, finally, it’s game week. As such, it’s time to take a look at the current early week odds for all NFL Week 1 games. Lines will vary, of course, from site to site, sports book to sports book, so I’m going to go with a commonly-used app with many gamblers - Bovada.
Per Bovada, the opening Week 1 odds for each game are:
Houston at Kansas City (-9.5); 54.5
Chicago at Detroit (-3); O/U 44.5
Cleveland at Baltimore (-8); O/U 48.5
Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5); O/U 45.5
Indianapolis (-8) at Jacksonville; O/U 45
Las Vegas (-3) at Carolina; O/U 47.5
Miami at New England (-6.5); O/U 43
New York Jets at Buffalo (-6.5); O/U 39.5
Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington; O/U 43
Seattle (-2) at Atlanta; O/U 49
LA Chargers (-3) at Cincinnati; O/U 43
Arizona at San Francisco (-7); O/U 47.5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5); O/U 49
Dallas (-3) at LA Rams; O/U 52
Pittsburgh (-6) at New York Giants
Tennessee at Denver (pick)
Lines (I think) I like
I can’t get Miami out of my mouth fast enough. In fact, it was at +6 for Miami yesterday and shifted to +6.5 today, which means the money has been coming in on New England. We know what happened last time, and Miami got better since and New England has (seemingly) gotten significantly worse. That’s obviously normally a murderous road trip, but last year proved these teams have closed the gap. Maybe wait and see if it gets to 7, then take it.
Not sure why the Raiders are laying 3 at Carolina. I know the Panthers are entering the Matt Rhule era with a new quarterback, but the Panthers have the best player in the stadium by far. I also don’t trust Jon Gruden and Derek Carr not to lay an egg on the road here. Tampa Bay was getting 3, but that’s creeped up to 3.5. Should be a close, relatively high scoring game in the Superdome, so getting the hook could make a difference. I also like the Chargers chances of covering 3 as a road favorite more than most teams.
Lines I wouldn’t touch, even with your money
Seattle laying 2 at Atlanta. Who. Freaking. Knows. Those are two notoriously enigmatic teams who can score in bunches. If anything, I might think about over 49, but nothing on that spread. Indy is laying 8 at Jacksonville, and that seems like a lot for a team of Indy’s ilk to lay here, but is this one of those Baltimore-Miami season openers where the team who purged its roster (Jags) still hasn’t gotten its sea legs yet? Could be, but I wouldn’t put money down on it either way. Same for Cleveland. The Browns won in Baltimore in 2019 (and convincingly at that) and fortified their offensive line by adding tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills, but they have a new head coach and a new system on both sides of the ball. I just don’t trust them not to have a learning curve against the most explosive player in the game on the road. I just don’t feel comfortable about it either way.