As we reach the quarter pole of the season, we’re finally beginning to see what teams are made of. Accordingly, the betting lines (I feel) become less speculative, and bets made a little bit more on an educated basis. That being said, there are plenty of lines that leave me miffed this week. The opening lines of all Week 4 games are as follows:
Denver (-2.5) at NY Jets; O/U 40 (odds from Mile High Report, as Bovada does not currently show this game
Arizona (-4) at Carolina; O/U 52.5
Baltimore (-13) at Washington; 47
Cleveland at Dallas (-4.5); 55.5
Indianapolis (-3) at Chicago; 45
Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-3); 49.5
LA Chargers at Tampa Bay (-7.5); 43.5
New Orleans (-4) at Detroit; 54
Seattle (-7) at Miami; 54.5
Buffalo (-3) at Las Vegas; 52
New England at Kansas City (-7); 54
Philadelphia at San Francisco (-7); 45
Atlanta at Green Bay (-7.5); 58
If there was a trio of quarterbacks you DON’T want to see coming to town, Russell Wilson would be in that triumvirate. That being said, Miami feels like they’re in one of those spots to really give Seattle a fight. The Seahawks must come all the way across the country, have been in a pair of back-to-back dog fights, and narrowly escaped both games. If they lose to Dallas last week, I’m more worried about this game (which is just a hunch, I know, but still). I don’t know if they get to 54 combined points, but I do think we get a close game with plenty of big plays. As such, Miami getting a touchdown seems like a solid play.
Elsewhere, Denver giving 2.5 seems iffy, but the Jets are such a hot mess on offense. I’d lay it. Indy at Chicago are set at 45 points. The Colts’ offense has been hot recently (albeit against subpar opposition), while the Bears’ defense has been generous against Detroit and Atlanta. Conversely, Nick Foles’ performance at the end of the game gives confidence he can efficiently move the ball for the Bears’ offense. This should be a game where each team hits the mid-20s, so over seems reasonable.
Give Bill Belichick a touchdown, and I will take that all day, every day. Give an NFL team 13 points, and I will take those most of the time, too. Giants and that Washington team, included.
Who do you all like this weekend?