*Author's Note: It took a lot of self control not to just title this article "Tua Tua Tua Tua TUA TUA TUA TUA DOLPHINS TUA TUA MIAMI TUA" so I could get as many views as possible. You're all welcome.

Unbelievably, it's that time of year again: my annual descent into madness. Even more unbelievably, the 2019 Miami Dolphins finished the season 5-11. The fact that Brian Flores wasn't even on the short list for Coach of the Year is a grave injustice on par with every Superbowl the *Patriots have ever won. Hot diggity damn, that Week 17 win was just the best, wasn't it?

The Dolphins' 2020 offseason is poised to be one of the most active and significant that the franchise has seen in quite some time. It's the most exciting offseason I can remember, but nonetheless, I'll try to keep this short and it won't be so don't even worry about it. As of this writing (which, admittedly, is early just because I wanted to do it before Free Agency so my speculation can be as baseless as possible), we've got 13 draft picks (with another likely coming via compensatory pick), $94 million in cap space, and 20 in-house free agents, 17 of whom were paid under $1m in 2019.

So as the great philosopher Will.I.Am once asked: Whatcha gonna do with all that junk?

I never like to prognosticate the team's actions, but I always like to make armchair recommendations that never have any real consequence to vaguely suggest that NFL GMs are about as effective as I (a guy who took 30 years to realize that pipe cleaners aren't just used to make children's crafts, but actually clean pipes) am at making personnel decisions.

	Me	Success (2019)	Dolphins	Success (2019)	Winner
2017
Round 1	Zach Cunningham, LB (HOU)	142 tks	Charles Harris, DE	None	Me
Round 2	Demarcus Walker, DE (DEN)	4 sacks	Raekwon McMillan, LB	Excellent run stopper and leader	Dolphins
Round 3	Eddie Vanderdoes, DT (HOU)	8 tks	Cordrea Tankersley, CB	Solid rookie year, then injured	Tie
Round 5	Kyle Fuller, C (SEA)	Backup G	Davon Godchaux, DT	75 tks, 2 sacks; building block	Dolphins
Round 5	Stacy Coley, WR (XFL)	None	Isaac Asiata, G	None; retired	Tie
Round 6	Jalen Myrick, S (XFL)	None	Vincent Taylor, DT	6 tks for BUF	Tie
Round 7	Sefo Liufau, QB (Retired)	None	Isaiah Ford, WR	244 yds and a growing role	Dolphins
2018
Round 1	Roquan Smith, LB (CHI)	101 tks, 2 sacks	Minkah Fitzpatrick, S	6th in DPOY voting, but for PIT	Me
Round 2	Marcus Allen, S (PIT)	Backup S	Mike Gesicki, TE	570 yds, 5 TDs	Dolphins
Round 3	Sony Michel, RB (NE)	912 yds, 7 TDs	Jerome Baker, LB	126 tks, 1.5 sacks	Me
Round 4	Adam Breneman, TE	None	Kalen Ballage, RB	Record setting badness	Tie
Round 4	Straight Nobody	None	Durham Smythe, TE	Blocking TE with 65 yds	N/A
Round 6	Tanner Lee, QB (FA)	None	Cornell Armstrong, CB	4 tks with HOU	Tie
Round 7	Bradley Bozeman, C (BAL)	Starting LG	Jason Sanders, K	Mountaineer Shot	Tie
Round 7	DaeSean Hamilton, WR (DEN)	297 yds, 1 TD	Quentin Poling, LB	None	Me
2019
Round 1	Christian Wilkins, DT (MIA)	56 tks, 2 sacks	Christian Wilkins, DT	2 PBU; building block	True Tie
Round 2	Amani Oruwariye, CB (DET)	19 tks, 3 INT	Josh Rosen via Trade	Not much	Me
Round 3	Beau Benzschawel, G (DET)	Rotational G	Michael Deiter, G	Starting-ish G	Tie
Round 4	Ross Pierschbacher, G (WAS)	Rotational C	Andrew Van Ginkel	On the rise after IR	Tie
Round 5	Stanley Morgan, WR (CIN)	18 yds	Isaiah Prince	Cut and picked up by CIN	Me
Round 6	DeMarcus Christmas (SEA)	PUP	Myles Gaskin	133 yds, 1 TD	Dolphins
Round 7	Jordan Ta'Amu (XFL)	None	Chandler Cox	Blocks sometimes	Dolphins

EgregiousPhilbin vs. Miami Dolphins Draft Records

2017: 1-3-3

2018: 3-2-2 with one N/A

2019: 2-2-3

Debatably, I'm 1-1-1 in 3 years, but not by much, and, again, it was decades until I understood The Count on Sesame Street isn't just a vampire, he also literally counts stuff.

I do this to illustrate not only how much fun one can have when they have nothing but free time and no life goals, but also as a brief point about tanking. The draft is like throwing darts at balloons at the county fair. Sure, the first overall pick can be a franchise changer (Peyton Manning), but it can also just be a good to great contributer (Jake Long, Eric Fisher, Jadeveon Clowney) and sometimes it's a complete waste (JaMarcus Russell).

Teams that are bad, like truly really actually very bad, like the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns, don't turn their franchises around based on one player. The 2008 Lions took Matt Stafford at 1.1 and improved to 2-14. The 2017 Browns took Baker Mayfield first overall and improved to 7-8-1. Not exactly turning on a dime. You have to build a house with the foundation first and a 5-11 season with a talent deficient roster is a far better foundation than an 0-16 one with the same group. Joe Burrow might be the second coming and he might be a JAG. Tua could be a 20 year savior or a first year retiree. The reality is that no one knows and, even if they're right (like with Andrew Luck), the second coming may not be enough to drag a team, kicking and screaming, to victory all by himself (like with Andrew Luck).

It's far more important to have a coaching staff that can adjust their strategy to fit their players, motivate them to grow, utilize their strengths, and build chemistry, cohesion, and a winning attitude. For the first time in a long time, it appears the Dolphins might have that.

With so much freedom, what to do, what to do. The recent firing of Chad O'Shea and hiring of Chan Gailey gives us a little direction.

I see the hiring as 3 pronged:

1) Gailey has familiarity with Fitz and can help bridge from him to a new QB (regardless of when that QB arrives).

2) The spread, if that's the way we go, is an easier system for a future QB to start with and is similar to what a lot of college QBs run.

3) Gailey is an experienced OC on a young staff. Like with Sean McVay and Wade Phillips (prior to his needless firing), there's something to be said for blending youth and experience.

Factoring in these bits of info, we can determine a few offseason goals:

- Shore up the OL because the spread will ask more of them and they are currently a hate crime

- Generate a pass rush because it was as effective as treating your sunburn with a cheese grater

- Lock down the secondary, especially if X ends up being human garbage (reserving judgment for now, but it's never a good look)

- Decide our strategy at QB and find someone to implement it

As painful as it might get, I guess we should talk about the QB question. I separate it into two possible approaches:

Option 1: Drop back pocket passer (Brady, Brees, Ryan)

This style is the more traditional quarterback, but often requires a more complete team, a well oiled system, or both.

Draftees that fit are Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Fromm, Eason, Stanley, Gordon

Option 2: Mobile dual-threat (Jackson, Watson, Wilson)

This style can improvise more effectively and add a running element, but can also require a tailored system and carry a higher risk of injury.

Draftees that fit are Love, Hurts, Newman, Ehlinger, Mond

Ultimately I think either QB style can eventually work. It really comes down to what they think will be effective against NFL defenses long term. Lamar Jackson is having great success now, but Baltimore has the top run offense and a stout defense. The coaching staff tailored the offense to his strengths (as they should) and he's taken off. Defenses might come up with something to consistently stop him, they might not. All I know is that if you plopped him in Miami instead of Baltimore on draft day, I don't think he's anywhere near the MVP conversation. Point being, it's really hard to find a Superman, but there are plenty of capable Clark Kents out there who can run your offense, if you put them in a position to succeed.

If they opt for a pocket passer not named Josh Rosen, Burrow's the guy (a few mocks have me getting him at 1.18, but that's gibberish), but won't be available. As good as Tua is, I worry about his injury enough to drop him down my board. If the Dolphins take him, I won't rage. But in my simulation, I'm led to Jake Fromm, who I like for his poise, experience, and time in a system that requires him to read the defense. Plus, he can be had later in the draft, allowing us to go BPA earlier. If they go dual threat, I prefer Love to the rest.

Resigning our pending free agents is a pretty easy task this offseason in the sense that there aren't big names demanding huge contracts. Everyone can be had affordably and even more money can be freed up by making a few cuts. WR is the position I struggled with most because I'd be happy if Albert Wilson came back at a lower value and if Jakeem Grant stuck around. But for the sake of shakeups, I'm leaving them both out.

Aqib Talib, J'Marcus Webb, John Jenkins, Clive Walford, Deon Lacey, Ricardo Louis, Samaje Perine, Trevor Davis, Chase Allen, Kendrick Norton, Evan Brown

Evan Boehm, Walt Aikens, Mike Hull, Vince Biegel, Adrien Colbert, Taybor Denney, Isaiah Ford, Matt Haack, Trent Harris

Reshad Jones, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Charles Harris, Taco Charlton, Kalen Ballage, Sam Eguavon

My free agency philosophy is always the same: buy the best young players at the cheapeast positions (interior OL, LB, RB) and don't sign huge back loaded deals that kick the cap down the line and smother the team like the pillow you're holding over your husband's face right now. And don't forget: we have $94 million in cap space. That's stupid! We can afford to front load every contract so that if we swing and miss on anyone, we can atone for that mistake without taking on lots of dead money. Plus, we can be a little splurgy and grab one or two big players. I'm not advocating signing every free agent listed, but below are some targets that should fit our scheme and improve some of our many deficiencies. With so much cap room, I didn't even bother calculating potential contracts because we can straight make it rain in this piece.

Quarterback: None

Running Back: Carlos Hyde

Or: Jordan Howard, Austin Ekeler, Matt Breida

Tight End: *Mo Alie-Cox or Blake Jarwin

Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb or Chester Rogers

Offensive Line: *RT Jack Conklin and G Brandon Scherff

Or: RT Germain Ifedi, *G Andrus Peat

Defensive Line: *Yannick Ngakoue

Or: Leonard Williams, Carl Nassib

Outside Linebacker: *Vic Beasley

Or: Bud Dupree, Markus Golden, Jamie Collins

Cornerback: Byron Jones

Or: Ronald Darby, Mackensie Alexander, Mike Hilton, Grant Haley

Free Safety: HaHa Clinton-Dix

Or: Justin Simmons, Jordan Lucas

My draft philosphy works in tandem with how I look at free agents. When drafting, seek the best players at expensive positions earlier (CB, OT, DE, QB). Once we do that, we can go BPA for a metric shitload of picks.

As always, I use FanSpeak to simulate the draft, no trades for simplicity, and a random cross section of big boards over 10+ drafts to get a reasonable understanding of who the 'experts' (HAH) think should be available at each spot. Of course, by the time the real draft rolls around, half of these guys will be gone 3 rounds earlier and the other half won't get drafted at all. But hey, that's half the fun.

1.5 - Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State

1.18 - Josh Jones, OT Houston

1.26 - Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Penn State

2.7 - Jake Fromm, QB Georgia

2.24 - D'Andre Swift, RB Georgia

3.6 - John Simpson, G Clemson

4.39 - Antoine Brooks, Jr., S Maryland

5.16 - Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR Liberty

5.27 - Cam Brown, LB Penn State

6.6 - A.J. Green, CB Oklahoma State

6.18 - Chauncey Rivers, DE Mississipi State

6.23 - J.R. Reed, S Georgia

7.32 - Isaiah Wright, WR Temple

QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Josh Rosen	Jake Fromm
FB	Chandler Cox
RB	D'Andre Swift	Patrick Laird	Myles Gaskin
LT	Josh Jones	Julie'n Davenport
LG	Michael Deiter
C	Evan Boehm	John Simpson
RG	Andrus Peat	Shaq Calhoun
RT	Jack Conklin	Jesse Davis
TE	Mike Gesicki	Mo Alie-Cox	Durham Smythe
WR	DeVante Parker	Preston Williams	Allen Hurns	Isaiah Ford	Antonio Gandy-Golden	Isaiah Wright
DE	Yannick Ngakoue	Yetur Gross-Matos	Trent Harris	Chauncey Rivers
DT	Christian Wilkins	Davon Godchaux
MLB	Raekwon McMillan	Mike Hull	Cam Brown	Terrill Hanks
OLB	Vic Beasley	Jerome Baker	Vince Biegel	Andrew Van Ginkel
CB	Xavien Howard	Jeff Okudah	Bobby McCain	Nik Needham	Cordrea Tankersley	A.J. Green
FS	Antoine Brooks	Walk Aikens
SS	Eric Rowe	Adrien Colbert	J.R. Reed
K	Jason Sanders
P	Matt Haack
LS	John Denney

No matter what the Dolphins do in 2020, as of this moment I've put my trust in the coaching staff and I've got some hope. It feels like the team finally has a path and now we're off to get the players who can take us down it.

"A leader can't lead til he knows where he's going." --John Locke, the LOST character, not the philospher.