We enter Week 13 after a 2-2 mark in Week 12 highlighted by an absolutely brutal result in Tampa. I took the Chiefs -3.5, and they absolutely dominated, with Tyreek Hill going completely off and the Chiefs building an insurmountable lead. Well, the Bucs made it almost surmountable, chipping back to within 3 points and hooking me from posting a winning mark for the week. The Browns also got soft down the stretch and let an 8-point lead late end up being a 2-point win in Jacksonville. C’est la vie.
Here are the lines for Week 13...
Cincy at Miami -11.5; O/U 42.5
Cleveland at Tennessee -5.5; 53.5
Detroit at Chicago -3; 45
Indy -3.5 at Houston; 50.5
Jacksonville at Minnesota -10; 51
Las Vegas -9 at NY Jets; 47
New Orleans -3 at Atlanta; 45
LA Rams -3 at Arizona; 48
NY Giants at Seattle -10.5; 47.5
New England -1 at LA Chargers; 47.5
Philly at Green Bay -8.5; 48.5
Denver at Kansas City -14; 51
Washington at Pittsburgh -7; 42
Buffalo at San Francisco -1; 47.5
Dallas at Baltimore (OFF - presumably for COVID issues before resetting the line)
New Orleans is just on a different level right now, especially defensively. They held the Falcons to 9 points a couple of weeks ago, and they’ll be effective again. Matt Ryan has struggled against the Saints in recent matchups, and I think that continues. I’ll lay 3 and take the Saints here.
Everything points to another Chiefs blowout over the Broncos, especially given the COVID issues limiting their QB reps recently, but the NFL is weird, and two touchdowns is a huge amount to lay (or take). Maybe I’m jaded by late, back-door points, but I’ll take Denver plus two touchdowns here.
Arizona has been enigmatic (see loss at New England and freakish win over Buffalo), but hey, so have the Rams, who are coming off a surprising home loss to the 49ers. This game screams points, even with the Rams’ defense playing as well as it has been lately. That said, I’ll take the Cardinals plus three points in a game that also has a decent chance to get over 48.
The Bills getting points against the Niners? Yep, I’ll take that. The Niners shocked everyone by winning at the Rams in Raheem Mostert’s return, but the Buffalo offense is playing well enough to give any defense problems right now. I