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Week 16 NFL lines and picks

NFL: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 had some highs and lows, as is the norm for all of us in the wagering world. The Jags couldn’t not have looked worse in a total de-pantsing in Baltimore. Doubling the line wouldn’t have even covered. Yuck. But, Miami pulled away and covered the 1.5, and Washington rallied late to cover 6.5 against Seattle. So, for the week, we finished 2-2. Let’s try to do better this week.

Tampa Bay -10 at Detroit; O/U 54

San Francisco at Arizona -5.5; 48.5

Miami -3 at Las Vegas; 48

Atlanta at Kansas City -10.5; 53.5

Chicago -7.5 at Jacksonville; 47

Cincy at Houston -7; 46

Cleveland -10 at NY Jets; 47.5

Indy -2 at Pittsburgh; 44

NY Giants at Baltimore -10; 44

Carolina at Washington -1; 42

Denver at LA Chargers -3.5; 49

LA Rams at Seattle -1; 47.5

Philly -2.5 at Dallas; 49.5

Tennessee at Green Bay -3; 55.5

Buffalo -7 at New England; 46

First, I won’t waste any time and get on that Tennessee/Green Bay under 55.5. Sure, both teams can get down the field, but that’s such a big number for two teams that run the ball so much and so well. Maybe I’m alone here, but I just don’t think they reach this total.

I’ll also begrudgingly take Miami and lay 3 points here. I might buy a hook or even a full point, as this is going to be a close, hard fought game. Miami is going to win its games scrappy, with good defense, and just enough offense. New England’s offense is terrible; Vegas’s isn’t. Derek Carr is gimpy, but is expected to play, so the Raiders’ offense should be mostly at full strength. If Miami has Gesicki, Parker, or both back today, this becomes a much easier pick to make.

Dallas has been playing better lately, but so has Philly under the steady hand of new starting QB Jalen Hurts, who has developed into a true dual threat. Dallas continues to have problems with its pass defense, which Hurts will take full advantage of. I’ll take Philly and lay 2.5 here.

Lastly, I’ll take the Bucs and lay 9.5 points. Yeah, it’s tough to think the Bucs will blow the doors off anyone, but they’ve strangely been a better road team than home team this year. Detroit is also without their interim head coach and both coordinators for COVID reasons, Matthew Stafford is a walking injury report, and Kenny Golladay as out yet again. The Bucs’ defense should tee off on Stafford and force a number of mistakes, with an explosive Bucs offense taking advantage against statistically one of the NFL’s poorer defenses. The Bucs clinch their first playoff berth since 2007 comfortably.