Week 14 NFL lines and picks

Week 13 was a relative success at 3-1. Only an Arizona defensive meltdown against the resurgent Rams kept us from a perfect week. We’ll try to do better here in Week 14, with games with playoffs implications all over the place, such as Kansas City-Miami, Minnesota-Tampa Bay, Indy-Las Vegas, and several others. Great slate of games this week.

Here are the current Sunday morning lines for Week 14 action.....

Arizona -2.5 at NY Giants; O/U 47

Dallas -3 at Cincy; 43

Denver at Carolina -3.5; 44.5

Houston -2 at Chicago; 46

Kansas City -7 at Miami; 50.5

Minnesota +7 at Tampa Bay; 52.5

Tennessee -7.5 at Jacksonville; 52

Indy -3 at Las Vegas; 52.5

NY Jets at Seattle -15; 48

Atlanta at LA Chargers (PICK); 49

Green Bay -8.5 at Detroit; 55

New Orleans -8 at Philly; 42.5

Washington at San Francisco -3; 43.5

Pittsburgh at Buffalo -2.5; 49

Baltimore -3 at Cleveland; 46

Look, I get why the Chiefs are big favorites against Miami. The Chiefs have the sexy offense, and the record-setting performance last week by Tyreek Hill against a suddenly-slumping Bucs team. Miami looked sluggish before pulling away for a 19-7 win over a badly overmatched Cincy team. But, I’m not sure the difference between the two teams is quite that much. The money has been coming in slightly on the Dolphins since the line opened, and I agree with that move. The Chiefs win a thriller (27-23), but the Dolphins cover the seven points.

As mentioned, Tampa Bay just does not look right, and hasn’t since the appearance of one Antonio Brown. Not saying he’s the reason, but just noting what is true: that the timing is......curious. In any event, like the KC-Miami line, I have a feeling this one might have been a point or two inflated because of the late struggles Minny had in putting away a horrible Jacksonville team last week. This line should be about 4.5 or 5, not 7. I’ll take Minny plus a touchdown here all day in what should be a tight game.

Chicago and Detroit went well over the number last week, with Stafford finding success through the air. If Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee are both able to go (and it looks like that’s more likely than not at this point, per reports), then the Texans have the firepower in the passing game to replace that somewhat. Meanwhile, the leaky Texans run defense should provide the lamb for David Montgomery to feast on. The Bears offense also had little problems last week against a toothless Lions defense. I’ll say this gets over 46.

Finally, it’s hard to imagine advocating Dallas right now, but the only team possible playing worse right now than Dallas is the rudderless Cincinnati offense, who can’t get anything going under Brandon Allen. Dallas showed some fight offensively against Baltimore last week with Andy Dalton, and I think the old Bengal finds a shred of redemption this afternoon with a more capable offense. I’ll lay the 3 points and take Dallas.