Week 11 was kind to my picks, with a 3-1 mark for the week. If not for the Dolphins’ no-showing at mile high, it would have been perfect. Oh well. It made up for a 1-3 week before very nicely.
This week there are some interesting inter-regional matchups mixed in with some intriguing divisional tilts. Here are the lines...
Arizona -2.5 at New England; O/U 49
Carolina at Minnesota -3; 50
Cleveland -7 at Jacksonville; 48.5
Las Vegas -3 at Atlanta; 54
LA Chargers at Buffalo -4.5; 53
NY Giants -6 at Cincy; 44
Tennessee at Indy -3; 51.5
San Francisco at LA Rams -6.5; 44.5
Kansas City -3.5 at Tampa Bay; 56.5
Chicago at Green Bay -9.5; 44
Seattle -5.5 at Philly; 49
First, it’s worth noting that, at the time of this writing, the Dolphins-Jets line has been pulled due to Tua being downgraded to doubtful for the game. Whenever it’s re-posted, I would probably get down on Miami on the moneyline at worst, regardless. Maybe parlay it with one of the forthcoming picks.
Cleveland laying seven feels like the lock of locks. The Cleveland ground game is absolutely humming right now. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should completely outclass the Jags’ run defense. Conversely, the Jags are rolling out yet another new starter in Mike Glennon. No Myles Garrett, no Sione Takitaki, no Denzel Ward, no problem. Browns still win comfortably.
The Bucs just don’t look right. The Chiefs defense has given up 30+ points in their last 2 games, but I don’t know if Brady and the Bucs’ offense has the ability to exploit it right now, especially with a banged up offensive line. The loss of DT Vita Vea has been a major blow to a Bucs defense that has taken a step back in recent weeks. Chiefs cover the 3.5 on the road.
Buffalo seems like a different team at home. They get a Chargers team that struggled to put away a toothless Jets team at home last week. The Bills defense has allowed 26+ points in six games this year, but it’s the Chargers defense I’m more worried about, with Melvin Ingram, Uchenna Nwosu, and Casey Heyward having been ruled out. The Chargers get theirs from Herbert, but Allen and the Bills offense outscores them to cover the 4.5.
Las Vegas has been playing well lately, last week notwithstanding, especially on defense. They held Cleveland to 6 points and Denver to 12 in the past month. Atlanta has shown a little bit more fight lately than one might notice from their record, but offensively they haven’t been as explosive as they usually are downfield. Both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are fighting injuries and Todd Gurley has already been ruled out. This feels like a game in the 40s, so - even though these are two potent offenses - I’ll take the under here.