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Week 11 NFL lines and picks

Los Angeles Chargers v Miami Dolphins Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images

YUCK. That’s a formal assessment of last week’s slate of picks, with a 1-3 mark for the week. I guess I was due to have a stinker after a strong of solid performances, but I didn’t expect to swing and miss on Baltimore like I did. What in the world was that steaming mess of a performance in Foxboro? Killed my suicide pool entry too. Thanks for literally nothing, flock.

But hey, the Dolphins did get us all a win and me a lone cover, so that’s always a positive. Let’s see what this week’s slate of games looks like.....

Atlanta at New Orleans -3.5; O/U 49.5

Cincy at Washington -1; 47

New England -2.5 at Houston; 49

Philly at Cleveland -2.5; 47

Pittsburgh -10.5 at Jacksonville; 46

Tennessee at Baltimore -6; 50

NY Jets at LA Chargers -9.5; 46.5

Miami -3.5 at Denver; 46

Dallas at Minnesota -7; 48.5

Green Bay at Indy -1; 51.5

Kansas City -7.5 at Las Vegas; 56.5

LA Rams at Tampa Bay -4; 48

The Dolphins are playing too well and with too much confidence, so I’ll lay the 3.5 and take Miami (although I’d buy off the hook, if possible). Drew Lock is reportedly going to play, which feeds right into Miami’s aggressive and opportunistic defense. Lock is third in the NFL in interceptions (10), and with Miami’s ability to generate pressure right now, I expect lots of impact plays from the Fins defense today.

New England sledge-hammered the Baltimore defense last week and exposed a vulnerability with the Ravens front. If there’s a RB you don’t want to face the next week, it’s Derrick Henry. Tennessee pounds their way to a close game, at least. I’ll take Tennessee and six points.

Washington’s pass defense has been very good this year (fewest passing yards allowed per game, and they can generate pressure (fifth most sacks), which makes for a relatively tough matchup for Joe Burrow. I think the Redskins have an easier time moving the ball today, with the offense playing competent football lately under Alex Smith. I’ll take Washington minus one.

Atlanta has been playing significantly better since Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn. The Saints are without Drew Brees and are reportedly going this week with.......Taysom Hill? I don’t get Sean Payton’s undying love for Hill, but he has a Super Bowl ring and I write on the internet. That being said, I think this is lower scoring than normal, with the Saints’ defense doing a solid job on Atlanta’s WRs with Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins and keeping Todd Gurley contained with their top-ranked run defense (3.3 ypc, T-1 with Tampa Bay). New Orleans’ offense does just little enough for this one to go under the total. (If you got it earlier this week at 51, good on you, as that number has been dropping like a stone since Brees was placed on IR.)