Week 7 was a good one for me in the picks column. I called for Detroit +2, WAS/DAL under, Chargers -7.5, and the CAR/NO under. The Panthers-Saints pushed, and the other three hit. For the last 2 weeks, we’ve had a 6-1-1 mark. That ain’t bad, y’all.
Here are the lines for Week 8.....
LA Rams (-3.5) at Miami; O/U 46
Indianapolis (-3) at Detroit; 50
Las Vegas at Cleveland (-2.5); 50.5
Minnesota at Green Bay (-6); 51
New England at Buffalo (-4); 41
NY Jets at Kansas City (-20); 49
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-4); 46.5
Tennessee (-6) at Cincinnati; 52.5
New Orleans (-5) at Chicago; 43.5
San Francisco at Seattle (-3); 53.5
Dallas at Philadelphia (-9.5); 43
Tampa Bay at NY Giants (OFF)
It’s a big one this week, as Tua Tagovailoa makes his debut as the Dolphins starting signal caller in what will hopefully be a long and illustrious career. As good as the Rams defense has been playing - and Miami’s defense has obviously been playing well lately, too - this seems like a 23-16 or 24-20 type of game, especially with Tua and his offensive teammates working together for the first time under the bright lights (not counting last week’s garbage time). LA-Miami feels like an under score.
Speaking of unders, I like Indy and Detroit to stay under 50. The Colts have allowed 11 or fewer points in half their games this season. Detroit’s defense has been hit or miss, but is coming off efforts in the past month where they held Arizona to 23 points, Jacksonville to 16, and Atlanta to 22. I think this stays somewhere close to the Detroit-Atlanta 23-22 score, so I’ll go low again.
Tennessee has obviously had a good start to the season, but Cincinnati is quietly starting to put together some solid play, despite their results. In fact, they’ve lost by less than one touchdown in every game except for at Baltimore. That’s pretty darned solid. Conversely, Tennessee has eeked out most of their wins against subpar competition, including Houston, Denver, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. I’ll take Joe Burrow and six points all day long in this spot.
I don’t know if Aaron Jones will play Sunday, but I’ll still lay six points and take the Packers Sunday. Davante Adams showed he’s healthy enough to return to being the most impactful WR in the game, and the Minnesota pass defense will accommodate another monster day for him. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings will fall behind and won’t be able to keep up.