Swim into the Phink Tank, pt. 2

Rest assured, an unforeseen set of circumstances will violently shift the group-think tides of the 2019 NFL Draft — we just don’t know how much yet.

This is an exercise, much like a mock draft, that puts us in “what if?” mode. Here’s the 1st thought experiment we did in the Phink Tank: PART ONE.

The following players are off the board (in no particular order), and the Miami Dolphins found no feasible trade-up scenarios:

• Kyler Murray
• Dwayne Haskins
• Drew Lock
• Ed Oliver
• Quinnen Williams
• Josh Allen
• Nick Bosa
• Devin White
• Jawaan Taylor
• Jonah Williams
• Brian Burns
• Christian Wilkins

You have two options:

1. Choose the best player on your board
2. Trade down, out of the 1st round, to the 49th pick with the Cleveland Browns — who have been rumored to be open to getting back into the 1st after trading their 2019 1st rounder for Odell Beckham, Jr.

In return, the Dolphins get the 2019 5th round pick, 2020 Browns 1st round pick and the Dolphins send their 2020 3rd round pick to the Browns. The Browns intend to get ahead of the Atlanta Falcons to get the highest rated CB on their board in 2019, throwing caution to the wind.

Sutton’s Take

The 2020 draft ticket would look like this for the Dolphins if this hypothetical trade catalyzed: 1st (Mia), 1st (Cle), 2nd (Mia), 3rd (compensatory), 4th (Mia), 4th (Ryan Tannehill trade), 5th (Mia), 5th (compensatory), 6th (Mia), 6th (Robert Quinn trade), 7th, 7th (Jordan Lucas trade).

However, in 2019, the Miami Dolphins would not make a pick until #48 (and #49 from the Browns).

I would take the trade.

Essentially, there’s a swap of 1st rounders and the Dolphins get a 2nd and 5th while the Browns get a 3rd.

Yes, the Dolphins would miss out on good talent in this class — lots of trench players will go before #48. Yet, an opportunity to get a Browns 1st rounder is too tempting to pass up, and the 2019 defensive line class is deep. Say what you will about what the Browns look like on paper, we know what happens to off-season champions. It takes a minute for players to figure each other out.

In a division with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, it’ll be a competitive AFC North. At worst, I think the Browns 1st rounder is somewhere in the 20’s; at best, it’s in the top 10 (perhaps an injury is the straw that breaks the camel’s back).

The possibility of two top-10 picks is too tantalizing to pass up, and considering the lack of top-end talent in this class, if you play the law of averages then we should expect the pendulum to swing. Maybe, just maybe, the Dolphins will have the luxurious picks in a draft that has plenty of filet mignons (or really good falafel, if you’re a vegan).

The trade would help facilitate a worse 2019, which lands the Dolphins closer to that top 5/10 pick that’s reportedly been coveted.

Conclusion

Would you accept the trade and hopefully take advantage of an NFL franchise desperate to put its inferiority in the rearview mirror, or would you resist the urge and choose the best player available at #13?

Let me know your thoughts down in the Comments Section!