Why Kyler Murray Going #1 to the Arizona Cardinals is a Smokescreen

The best smokescreens have natural momentum, or a kernel of truth to them. The following video is part of the very DNA why the “Kyler Murray to the Arizona Cardinals at #1” rationale has built steam.

Without a guarantee he’d be on an NFL team’s radar a couple months from then, Kliff Kingsbury mentions that he would take Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick seemingly unsolicited.

Now, he’s the head coach of the team picking number 1 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft.

No brainer, right?

Hardly.

The last time an NFL team drafted a QB in consecutive 1st rounds was 1982-1983, when the Baltimore Colts drafted John Elway in 1983 after drafting Art Schlicter in 1982 — and it’s only happened four times in NFL history.

Despite a head coach and front office’s ephemeral time spent in an organization, teams still haven’t invested in a QB two years in a row in the 1st round in 36 years. Ironically enough, the Arizona Cardinals have had the same general manager, Steve Keim, since 2013. If this were a complete sweep, that would ripen the conditions for a team to invest in 1st round QB’s two years in a row.

Could you imagine the interview Kliff Kingsbury must have had to come in, with zero NFL experience, and convince a decision maker in the front office who’s been there since 2013 to basically admit complete failure on a QB the team just spent a top-10 pick on? Unless former head coach Steve Wilks, a defensive-minded rookie HC, pounded the table for Josh Rosen and GM Keim got overruled, I don’t see a scenario where Rosen’s selection doesn’t significantly point to Keim’s decision making.

And what, exactly, would Kingsbury’s expertise have been in working with someone like Kyler Murray anyway?

To me, it’s a matter of economics. You spend #10 (1,300 points on the Jimmy Johnson “Draft Value Chart”) on a QB in year X. The following year, you spend #1 (3,000 points on the JJDVC) on a QB. You’re now completely dependent on the fact that multiple teams vie for the services of someone you’re willing to move on from in one year. If there’s only one interested party, they can lowball the offer, essentially calling the bluff that you’d keep both QB’s.

Luckily for the Cardinals, the NFL is QB-starved, like Walking Dead for delicious brains starved. They’d have suitors. Now, though, you’re dependent on the desperation of the teams involved — and — that those teams don’t work together to bring the cost down, knowing you can’t play both QB’s.

You’ve spent 4,300 points on a position where only one player can start, and if you don’t receive at least the #10 pick or higher, you’ve set up a situation that leans toward a failure on return. That’s bad business, and that’s what the NFL is, a business.

Not to mention, Kyler Murray isn’t the second coming of John Elway or Andrew Luck or (insert your prototype college QB coming into the NFL Draft here). Does Kyler Murray have a high ceiling? Absolutely. But you don’t make this move unless you think he’s going to be one of the best ever.

Kyler Murray to Arizona is a smokescreen.

I’d love to have a discussion if you feel Arizona drafting Murray at #1 is legitimate. Let’s tango down in the Comments Section, I’ll do my best to not get you pregnant!