FanPost

A Look at the Patriots' Original Blueprint for a Dynasty

As I write this, Dolphins world is still dealing with the excitement/relief of moving on from the Tannehill Era, along with saying goodbye to many of the notable names from rosters of seasons past. It has been a true purge, the likes of which many of us thought Steven Ross incapable. But here we are, with Chris Grier and his chosen new head coach, Brian Flores, completely willing to jettison any player who asks for more money than they are willing to spend. The roster is getting pared down more and more every day, and many of us are keeping the faith that this is all part of the first steps of an over-arching plan.

That plan, as most of us assume, is to do what more than a few NFL teams have tried but failed to do in the past decade or more - create a new "Patriots" team; a team that can quickly move on from mediocrity, take a step back for a season, and then become a force unlike any seen in the NFL since the dawn of free agency.

The Elusive "Key Ingredients" to the Patriots Special Sauce

Before going further, I want to point out that I understand that there has been far more to the Pats' last 20 years of immense success than simply gutting a roster, filling it with "the head coach's guys," and maintaining a strict adherence to the head coach's system. In my opinion, the Pats' extended success comes down, mostly, to a few things:

  1. Bill Belichick truly is a bottomless well of football knowledge. A little research into him will show you that the man does little more than live, eat, sleep, and breath football with every essence of his being. It is difficult, if not impossible, to find any other hobbies or interests that the man has that do not relate to football. While we all hear stories of NFL head coaches who spend countless hours in film rooms, I think Belichick is the kind of guy who is consumed to his core by the sport. This is part of the reason that he is virtually never surprised by anything an opposing team does, and can adjust accordingly to nearly any situation. It's also the reason that he's brilliant at drafting and developing young players, which is how the Pats can afford to say sayonara to any player who wants more money that the Pats are willing to give. "You don't like that offer? Well guess what? We can find a rookie who will be nearly as good as you for a small fraction of your asking price. See ya."
  2. Winning the Superbowl in his second year as head coach of the Patriots was a massive boon to Belichick. The guy has all the personality of a crotchety accounting clerk, and tons of his former players will tell you that it's no day at the beach to play for him, but once he got that first ring, all argument against him ceased. After the 2001 season, any player who thought he was bigger than the team could just get a faceful of Belichick's Superbowl ring as a response. And if he still didn't want to get in line, well then he would get shipped out of town in a hurry. Those second and third championships they won in 2003 and 2004 only solidified it, but that first one completely set the tone.
  3. Finding the greatest diamond in the rough was the third big piece to the puzzle. I'm of the opinion that Tom Brady came into the NFL as a "good" quarterback, but that if he had landed anywhere but the Patriots, he would not have nearly the amazing career that he has had. While not a great athlete in terms of speed or agility, he had exactly the kind of QB mind that Belichick needed - a guy who could initially be a highly effective game manager, but gradually become more and more proficient at reading defenses and picking them apart with smart, conservative, and accurate passes.

Of course, there are other variables, but these are the biggest factors in my mind. They are the ones that, among many elusive traits, are the most difficult to replicate. We won't know if Brian Flores has Belichick's astute knowledge of the game, and we won't know if he bags a Superbowl within his first few years as head coach. We also won't know if he lands his franchise quarter back, by luck or by design, until we're two or three years into this thing. What we do know, though, is that it all started with Belichick looking at his first Pats roster like a chef looking at an overly fatty slab of meat:

In the Beginning, There Was a Roster Purge...

I think many of us know the basics of those early years of the Pats dynasty, but I wanted to go back and take a closer look at exactly what Bill Belichick did to the roster he inherited from the prior coach, Pete Carroll, who had been the Pats' head coach between the years 1997 and 1999 (by the way, Carroll's records were 10-6, 9-7, and 8-8, a steady slide from "good" to "mediocre"). Mainly, I was looking at the raw numbers of guys who Belichick kept around, compared to the number that he brought in, as well as just how many rookies he installed onto the team.

Pete Carroll's third and final year with the Pats was one that should seem familiar to Dolphins fans. You had a roster with some notable talent on it, including a few Pro Bowlers and even an All Pro (Lawyer Milloy). And yet, they only went 8-8. Ownership decided to move on, and Pete Carroll went on to win acclaim and dodge scandal at USC. Cue Bill Belichick, only a couple years removed from his Cleveland Browns experience and a few months after leaving the Jets at the proverbial altar. Here's what Belichick did to the 2000 Pats roster (all information was obtained from football-reference.com):

  • Of the 56 players who had been on the 1999 team, 24 were cut or released in some way.
  • 34 players were added, with 19 of them being rookies.
  • That team went 5-11.

So this was obviously the "step backward" which is the assumed initial stage of a classic rebuild. But Belichick was far from done. When 2001 rolled around, he kept going:

  • Of the 64 players who had been on the 2000 team, 21 of them were cut or released.
  • Of the players from the 1999 roster, only 20 of them were still on the team in 2001.
  • 26 new players were added, with 9 of them being rookies.
  • That team went 11-5 and won the Superbowl.

What you have there is a head coach who, in two years, gutted well over half of the roster (only 20 out of 56 players remained, for an intimidating 35% survival rate), and brought in a stunningly high number of rookies. While many of those rookies never even saw a snap in a Pats uniform, several of them did, and became core players to those first three championships in 2001, 2003 and 2004.

So What's All This Mean for the Dolphins?

There's no way to tell for sure, but it does point out that the new Miami front office and coaching staff is following the early steps that Belichick took in New England. He had enough faith in himself, his assistant coaches, and his system that he wasn't afraid to jettison aging and/or overpaid players. This is what nearly every other team who goes for a rebuild, including Dolphins teams from the past decade, have failed to completely understand. Take the Raiders as a good example. One could argue that last season, they ostensibly got off to a decent start in emulating "The Belichick Method" dumping large contracts like that of Khalil Mack and getting back draft capital. But less than a year later, they start throwing around insanely high contracts to the likes of Antonio Brown and Chad Green. Add to that the fact that Jon Gruden does not have a great track record of drafting and developing well, and I see the Raiders continuing to wallow in the realms of below-average teams for a while.

Thus far, though, the Dolphins are sticking to the plan. It is still very early, and this is admittedly the easiest part of the plan to follow. It doesn't take a Belichick-like football mind to look over a roster payroll, see who's making way too much money, and cut them loose. It does, however, take a modicum of self control and fortitude not to give in to temptation and bring in an overpriced but flashy free agent. And as of this moment, it would seem that Grier resisted that temptation for this offseason.

Next up is seeing who the Dolphins pick in the draft and how they develop. Unfortunately, this is a step in the process that takes time to assess. Even with the early Belichick Patriots, it wasn't until well into their second season that it was clear that Belichick's plan to completely retool that team was working. And it wasn't until several more seasons that his true genius as a talent evaluator and developer was clear.

For now, we can only hope that the path continues. I expect that the next signs that the plan is working is just how the Dolphins look on the field. I don't think any sane person can expect them to win more than 5 games next year (I personally predict a 3 or 4-win season), but it will be how they win and lose their games that could be telling. In Belichick's inaugural season, the Pats lost 11 games, but 8 of those losses were by only 7 points or less. They only lost by double digits two times, and they actually went 3-3 over their final 6 games. They were a bad team, but one that clearly was forming an identity as a tough defensive team, and one that got noticeably better by the end of the season.

I think those are the things that we should look for in 2019. Even though the Dolphins will almost certainly have less athletic talent than their opponents far more often than not, do they show development as a team with good fundamentals and ability to adapt? If so, and if they look like a legit team come December, than I think we can be optimistic.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.