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Zebra Scouting Report: Week 10

So, here we go again... another tough road opponent, against a QB even our former hero (yes, Dan the Man) once said "if I could choose one player to build a franchise around, it would be Aaron Rodgers." I don't know if those were his exact words, but we did build a franchise (a long, long, loooooooong time ago) around Marino... and when you watched Rodgers do a "fake spike" against our own team 4 years ago, you couldn't help but compare the two. At least we have a good excuse if we lose this game... Rodgers is great... but I think both teams will struggle against the referees this week, who may ultimately be the deciding factor in this matchup.

Zebra Scouting Report:

Clay Martin's crew has officiated 8 games to date. The Home team is 5-3 but outside of Week 2 (Chargers @ Bills) and Week 5 (Jets @ Jaguars), each game has been decided by no more than one touchdown. The last four games have been split 2-2 (Away team winning the last two) and the point differential in those games (combined) is 0... 83 points scored by both Home and Away.

The Home team has been penalized more (59:51 accepted) when Martin is officiating. In fact, his crew has had 1 more accepted penalties per game (15.7) than the average NFL game this year. Those penalties have resulted in the 5th most of all officiating crews.

Martin's crew has called the 4th most Defensive Offsides, Neutral Zone Infractions, and Encroachment (13 combined) of any crew in the league. 4 penalties have gone against the Home team, compared to 9 against the Away team.

They are also tied 7th most for False Starts called (18 total) but in this case 14 have gone against the Home team, compared to just 4 against the Away team.

Along those same lines, the Home team has been responsible for 10 Offensive Holding calls, compared to just 6 for the Away team. If you include Special Teams, those numbers jump to 17 and 9, respectively, which is 4th most called in the league.

Secondaries appear to struggle some with Martin's crew, as they've been called for DPI and Defensive Holding more than any other crew but one. Defensive Holding is split evenly, 4:4, but the Home team has been called for DPI 3 times, compared to 1 for the Away team.

Lastly, Martin's crew has called THE MOST illegal use of hands. It may only be 5 called in 8 games but there's reason to be concerned when a crew leads the league in calls. 2 have been called against the Home team, while 3 against the Away team. And, just because I found it interesting.... 3 of the 5 have been called against AFC East teams.

Team Penalties:

Miami has been called for Defensive Offsides, Neautral Zone Infraction, and Encroachment 10 times (combined), making them tied for the 2nd most penalized team in this category to date. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Green Bay has been penalized the 2nd least in the league, with just 1 penalty.

Both teams are tied with just 6 False Starts, which marks them at 7th fewest in the league.

Both teams have been penalized 13 times for Offensive Holding, which makes them tied for 6th most.

Miami has been called for DPI/Defensive Holding 10 times (T-4th most) in 9 games, while Green Bay has committed 8 (T-6th most) of these penalties in 8 games.

Neither Green Bay or Miami have been penalized for illegal use of hands.

Green Bay has committed 46% of their penalties at home, while Miami has a slightly better 44% of penalties called on the road.

Other Notes:

Miami is 1-3 as the Away team this year, while Green Bay is 3-0-1 as the Home team. In Non-Conference games, both teams are 1-1, and against common opponents they are each 1-2. In fact, against common opponents, both have beaten Chicago and lost to Detroit and New England. Since Gase became head coach in 2016, both teams are split 5-5 against Non-Conference teams.

Green Bay is 2-2-1 against uncommon opponents (to date). The two wins were both against weak 2-7 teams (Bills and 49ers). The losses (and tie) came from quality opponents, however, in the Rams, Redskins and Vikings (tie).

Keys To The Game:

We have to watch our hands on Defense. 2nd most DPI/Defensive Holding and 1st in Illegal Use of Hands tells me Martin's crew may call some questionable fouls in the secondary due to the volume. And with Miami having a propensity to be called for these types of penalties, I'm expecting to see a few. On the other side, Green Bay isn't too far behind in these calls. Perhaps our speedy receivers can take advantage of that a few times?

Pre-snap Defene is going to be critical. On one hand, we are by far one of the worst at Defensive Offsides, Neutral Zone Infractions and Encroachment and coupling that with this crew's want to call these penalties, we may be in for a long day. On the other hand, if we can keep the game one dimensional and get some pressure, we'll have the opportunity to blitz often and perhaps draw some Offensive Holdings, as more than 75% to date have gone against the Home team. We may not get many sacks, but I think we'll see some good pressure and a number of knock downs.

Special Teams. I hope I'm wrong but I think we'll struggle keeping our Offense on the field this week. So, we need to take advantage of field position with Matt Haack whenever possible.

Prediction:

This is going to be a tough game to watch. I expect there to be many penalties on both Defenses and Green Bay's Offense... that's not to say Miami's Offense won't be penalized, I'm sure they'll have their fair share. But, I think the struggle for Miami's Offense will simply be... offense. If the OL struggles at all, Osweiler will struggle as well. We need to keep him upright, in the pocket, and get the ball out fast. We need to keep feeding the ball to Gore and Drake as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see each of them get 15-20 touches.

My gut tells me the Packers will win this one 23-13... but I never bet against my Dolphins. So, without further ado....

Miami Dolphins 17 - Green Bay Packers 13

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.