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The Miami Dolphins signed quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a four-year, $96 million contract extension in 2015, keeping him with the team through the 2020 season. The contract added $77 million in new money to the contract Tannehill was already under at the time, entering the final (non-fifth year option) year of his rookie contract. Now, as Tannehill misses the 2017 season with a knee injury, there is a discussion that Miami could use the lack of large guaranteed money remaining on the deal to get out from under the burden of the contract.
Except, is it really a burden?
Monday night, the Detroit Lions signed quarterback Matthew Stafford to a five-year, $135 million deal. That will pay him an average of $27 million per season over the life of the contract, with $92 million of the deal guaranteed, $60.5 million fully guaranteed, including a $50 million signing bonus. (All salary cap numbers from OverTheCap.com).
The two quarterbacks are fairly similar in terms of their stats. Tannehill has a career 62.7% completion rate, compared to Stafford’s 61.5%. Since Stafford has been in the league three years longer than Tannehill, the comparison is better as an average per season for both quarterbacks: Tannehill has 3,691.0 passing yards per season with 21.2 touchdowns and 13.2 interceptions; Stafford has 3,787.9 yards per season, with 23.4 touchdowns and 13.5 interceptions. Tannehill’s career quarterback rating is 86.5 while Stafford’s is 86.8. Stafford has been selected to one Pro Bowl (2014).
Comparing the two contracts:
Tannehill vs. Stafford (Salary cap numbers)
| Ryan Tannehill | Year | Matthew Stafford |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | Year | Matthew Stafford |
| $20,300,000 | 2017 | $16,500,000 |
| $19,800,000 | 2018 | $26,500,000 |
| $21,050,000 | 2019 | $29,500,000 |
| $19,522,523 | 2020 | $31,500,000 |
| FA | 2021 | $30,000,000 |
| 2022 | $23,000,000 |
Where does Tannehill’s contract stack up in the NFL as of right now?
Based on the average value per season of the current quarterback contracts, Tannehill is 16th:
Quarterback salary average per year
| Player | Average value | FA Year |
|---|---|---|
| Player | Average value | FA Year |
| Matt Stafford | $27,000,000 | 2023 |
| Derek Carr | $25,005,000 | 2023 |
| Andrew Luck | $24,594,000 | 2022 |
| Drew Brees | $24,250,000 | 2018 |
| Kirk Cousins | $23,943,600 | 2018 |
| Joe Flacco | $22,133,333 | 2022 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $22,000,000 | 2020 |
| Russell Wilson | $21,900,000 | 2020 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $21,850,000 | 2020 |
| Carson Palmer | $21,000,000 | 2019 |
| Eli Manning | $21,000,000 | 2020 |
| Philip Rivers | $20,812,500 | 2020 |
| Cam Newton | $20,760,000 | 2021 |
| Matt Ryan | $20,750,000 | 2019 |
| Tom Brady | $20,500,000 | 2020 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $19,250,000 | 2021 |
In 2017, Tannehill’s salary cap number ranks him fifth at $20.3 million, behind Joe Flacco ($24.455 million), Carson Palmer ($24.135 million), Kirk Cousins ($23.9436 million), Matt Ryan ($23.750 million), and tied with Aaron Rodgers ($20.3 million). Stafford’s new contract has a salary cap number this season of just $16.5 million, which ranks 16th this season.
After 2017, Cousins and Sam Bradford could both be in line for huge contracts.
The 2018 salary cap numbers, Tannehill ranks 15th at $19.8 million:
Quarterback salary cap numbers - 2018
| Quarterback | Salary Cap Number |
|---|---|
| Quarterback | Salary Cap Number |
| Matt Stafford | $26,500,000 |
| Derek Carr | $25,000,000 |
| Joe Flacco | $24,750,000 |
| Andrew Luck | $24,400,000 |
| Ben Roetlisberger | $23,200,000 |
| Eli Manning | $22,200,000 |
| Tom Brady | $22,000,000 |
| Russell Wilson | $21,700,000 |
| Matt Ryan | $21,650,000 |
| Cam Newton | $21,500,000 |
| Philip Rivers | $21,000,000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $20,900,000 |
| Carson Palmer | $20,625,000 |
| Alex Smith | $20,600,000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $19,800,000 |
After the 2018 season, Palmer, Ryan, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota will all be hitting free agency, with several of those likely to jump over Tannehill (if they are not already there).
In 2019, Tannehill’s $21.5 million salary cap number is 12th as of now:
Quarterback salary cap numbers - 2019
| Player | Salary Cap Number |
|---|---|
| Player | Salary Cap Number |
| Matt Stafford | $29,500,000 |
| Andrew Luck | $27,525,000 |
| Joe Flacco | $26,500,000 |
| Eli Manning | $23,200,000 |
| Cam Newton | $23,200,000 |
| Russell Wilson | $23,200,000 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $23,200,000 |
| Derek Carr | $22,500,000 |
| Philip Rivers | $22,000,000 |
| Tom Brady | $21,100,000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $21,100,000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $21,050,000 |
The post-2019 free agent class will include players like Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, and Dak Prescott, most of whom will likely re-sign with their teams by then on contracts that will stay ahead of Tannehill, or jump over him.
In Tannehill’s final year of his current contract, he is currently sixth in salary cap number - of the 20 players under contract. Stafford leads the way with a $31.5 million cap number, with Andrew Luck at $28.4 million, Flacco at $28.35 million, Derek Carr at $21.5 million, and Cam Newton at $21.1 million ahead of Tannehill’s $19.522523 million.
Joining Tannehill in the post-2020 projected free agent class are Drew Brees, Newton, Andy Dalton, Mitchell Trubisky, Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and DeShone Kizer.
Tannehill’s “huge” contract is quickly becoming an “average” starting quarterback contract, and should continue to fall as more extensions and re-signings happen over the next year or two. That is not to say the Dolphins and Tannehill do not work out a new deal on their own, giving the quarterback more guaranteed money while lowering his cap number, but the contract is really not that horrible for a starting quarterback in the league.