Prior to the 1st game of the season, and after Miami settled on their initial 53 man roster, I wrote a post titled "2016 Miami Predictions Sure To Be Wrong". Within hours of posting, I was already wrong about 1 prediction involving Griff Whalen. He got cut without ever playing a snap in the regular season for Miami. So even before the season started, I was 0-1.
With the regular season and Miami's playoff run complete, I thought it would be fun to see what I got right and what I got wrong while the season (and how fun was this season to be a Dolphins fan?) was still fresh in everyone's mind.
Here were ct1361's 12 Predictions Sure To Be Wrong:
1. There will be at least 12 players added to the 53 man roster by the end of the year. Either through injuries, practice squad players elevated, FA additions, etc. more than 25% of the roster will change. This roster isn't set by any means and I think there will be a constant churning of that roster throughout the year.
- I believe this one is correct. Miami made a TON of roster moves this year. (1-0) http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/transactions/MIA/miami-dolphins
2. Doughty will play in the regular season. I've made this prediction in comments in other posts. Either by injury to Tannehill or in mop up duty, Doughty will see some regular season snaps. I also think Gase wants to see what this young man can do in a real game. If the season goes south, it won't be out of the realm of possibility that Doughty could start a game at the very end of the regular season.
- Yeah, this one didn't happen. The season didn't go south, but with Tannehill's injury, there was an opportunity for another QB to get snaps, it was just Matt Moore that got those snaps. (1-1)
3. Griff Whalen will be a contributor to the offense. I think Whalen will have the 3rd most receptions at WR for Miami. Because of injury or just lack of production, Whalen will be on the field a lot. Landry will be #1 in receptions. Stills or Parker will be #2. Whalen will be #3. I don't see Carroo or Grant being a major player on the offense.
- Was wrong about this one right out of the gate. Whalen was cut within hours of posting the original post. (1-2)
4. Miami won't have 1 RB reach 800 yards rushing but will have 3 RB's with more than 400 yards rushing. I think Miami will be effective in running the ball by committee this year. I'll say that Foster, Ajayi, and Drake will all get opportunities as the primary back this year.
- I didn't see Ajayi becoming the dominant RB that he became. I thought it would be a RB by committee. Glad I was wrong about this one because Ajayi helped my fantasy team win the Super Bowl!! (1-3)
5. Miami's RB's combined will be the leading receivers on the team. I predict that Foster, Ajayi, Drake, Williams, and possibly Pead will catch 125+ balls between them. 35% of all targets from Miami QB's will go to RB's.
- Miami's RB's only had 66 Receptions on the year. I'm still a little surprised they didn't catch more. I would look for this number to improve in the next couple of years. (1-4) Great start huh?
6. Tannehill's passing numbers will decline from previous years. I predict Miami will throw less and run more, lessening Tannehill's opportunities. I also think Miami will have more rushing TD's taking away Tannehill's TD pass opportunities.
- Got this one right. Tannehill's pass attempts were down significantly from 2015 and 2014. His opportunity stats, yards / game, completions, etc. all decreased significantly. Miami finished tied for 30th with Dallas for fewest pass attempts / game. In 2015 Tannehill threw 6+ more attempts per game. He was on pace for 100+ fewer attempts in 2016. (2-4)
7. Tannehill's running numbers will increase significantly. I think Tannehill will crush his previous seasons rushing stats.
- This one is a little more interesting. In 2016, Tannehill averaged 12.6 yards / game rushing. In 2015, Tannehill averaged 8.8 yards / game rushing. Now, he saw about a 40% increase in yards per game in 2016 compared to 2015. Is that significant? Probably on a percentage basis, but that wasn't my intent on this prediction. I was thinking Tannehill would rush for about 500 yards this year or over 30 yards / game. So I'm counting this one as wrong. (2-5)
8. Miami will be a Top 10 Rushing Team in the NFL. Between the RB by committee and with Tannehill's rushing numbers, Miami will rush for close to 2,000 yards which should be good enough to be a Top 10 Rushing Team.
- Got this right even though the RB by committee didn't necessarily pan out. Miami finished 9th in the regular season in rushing with 1,824 yards. Ajayi finishing 4th in the league with 1,272 helped. (3-5)
9. Miami's defense will be ranked in the bottom 5 of the NFL in points allowed. Last year they were bad and played a bunch of bad QB's in the AFC South and NFC East. This year, they get good QB's in the AFC North and NFC West. Lots of points will be scored against Miami this year.
- Miami's defense was a respectable 18th in points allowed at 23.8 points / game. My prediction should have been "Bottom 5 in Yards Allowed". Miami finished 29th in that category allowing 6,122 total yards on the year. (3-6)
10. Suh will be the only DL player to start all 16 games. There is going to be a lot of change along the DL.
- I believe this one is correct. According to pro-football-reference.com, Suh is the only defensive player to start all 16 games. A couple others played in all 16 games, but they didn't start all of them.(4-6) http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2016.htm
11. At least 6 different LB's will start for Miami. Miami will spend the season looking for and filling in for injuries at the LB position. Going into 2017, the entire LB corp. might be different.
- Alonso, Misi, Jenkins, Paysinger, Hewitt, Butler, and Hull all started at least 1 game at LB for Miami according to pro-football-reference.com. (5-6)
12. Tony Lippett will lead the team in INT's. At some point he will be starting at CB. He will be targeted a lot and will give up a ton of plays. But he will also get his hands on the ball and get some INT's.
- Nailed this!! Lippett had 4 INT's on the year to lead the team. Maxwell, ABdul-Quddus, and Alonso each had 2 INT's. (6-6)
13. Bonus Prediction: Miami will win 5 games. Offensively, the team will be OK. Defensively, they will struggle. I don't see many stops by this defense this year.
- Missed that by quite a bit (and happy I did - I mean 10 wins & playoffs). I was right about the offense being OK and the defense struggling, but the total wins was way off. (6-7)
Overall, not too bad, in my opinion. I tried to be bold in my predictions (I'm mean Griff Whalen was BOLD), so hitting .500 ain't too bad!! Definitely not the next Football Nostradamus though.
So, what predictions did you make at the beginning of the year that you got right? Which did you get wrong? Looking forward to seeing the comments!!