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Dolphins analytical look at projected Ryan Tannehill 2015 stats

Can we project Ryan Tannehill's 2015 stats based on his last three years? We try.

Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

There has been a lot of talk this offseason about what to expect from quarterback Ryan Tannehill next year as he directs the Miami Dolphins' offense. He has statistically improved each year of his NFL career, a trend that will need to continue if the Dolphins will end their playoffs drought.

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what Tannehill's growth could look like, if he continues the same growth we have seen each season. I went through Tannehill's stats, averaging the differences from each season (i.e., 12 touchdown increase from 2012 to 2013 and 3 touchdown increase from 2013 to 2014 gives an average increase in 7.5 touchdowns). Then, I added those increases into Tannehill's stats from 2014 to get a look at the 2015 projections.

Year G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Y/A Rate
2012 16 16 282 484 58.3 3294 12 13 6.8 76.1
2013 16 16 355 588 60.4 3913 24 17 6.7 81.7
2014 16 16 392 590 66.4 4045 27 12 6.9 92.8
Average Change: 55 53 375.5 7.5 -0.5
2015 16 16 447 643 69.5 4421 35 11 6.9 99.7

That, of course, then led to the question of where those stats would rank in the NFL, using the 2014 statistics. Tannehill would be second in the league in attempts, completions, and completion percentage, if he hit these marks last year. He would have been sixth in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. He would have been 19th (ranked from most to least) in interceptions, and 27th in yards-per-attempt. He would have finished the year with the fifth best passer rating.

Of course, these stats are all conjecture. There is absolutely nothing that says Tannehill will see statistical increases anywhere near the average increases the last two years. There is nothing that says the Dolphins will throw the ball as much, especially if they trust Lamar Miller more this year, or add a complementary running back who can add to the ground game. Maybe the team takes more down-field chances in 2015, increasing the yards per attempt, but decreasing the completion percentage.

I just thought this might be a fun look at what could be in the Dolphins' future if Tannehill is able to keep growing like he has - and if the team is able to take the next step.