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The 2015 NFL Draft kicks off later tonight, which means we are getting down to the final part of mock draft season. Today, I update my projection for the first round of the Draft, making some changes from my Mock 1.0:
1 |
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers | (2-14) (.486 SOS) | |||
Jameis Winston, Quarterback, Florida State | ||||
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I really want to be contrarian here and pick someone other than Winston, mainly because so many people have him pegged as the top pick. I cannot do it, though, as he makes the most sense for the Buccaneers. | |||
2 |
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Tennessee Titans | (2-14) (.506 SOS) | |||
Marcus Mariota, Quarterback, Oregon | ||||
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I have gone back and forth on whether or not the Titans would take Mariota in this spot, but, at the end of the day, I do not think it is going to matter. I think Mariota becomes the second pick in the Draft; the team making the pick will likely change though. There is so much smoke on teams possibly moving up to grab the Oregon quarterback, it seems like it is going to happen. If I were to guess, I think the Chargers sending Philip Rivers to Tennessee makes the most sense. | |||
3 |
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Jacksonville Jaguars | (3-13) (.514 SOS) | |||
Dante Fowler, Jr., Outside linebacker, Florida | ||||
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Need outweighs best player available here, with the Jaguars skipping over Leonard Williams, the top defensive player in the draft, and choosing to pick up the best pass rusher over the best defensive tackle. Fowler should immediately upgrade the Jaguars defense. | |||
4 |
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Oakland Raiders | (3-13) (.570 SOS) | |||
Leonard Williams, Defensive tackle, Southern California | ||||
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I still like the idea of the Raiders picking up Amari Cooper with this pick, and would not be surprised at all if that is the way they go. Williams still being on the board, however, gives the Raiders the top defensive player in the Draft, and potentially the top player in the Draft. That is too good a selection for the Raiders to pass. | |||
5 |
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Washington Redskins | (4-12) (.496 SOS) | |||
Brandon Scherff, Offensive tackle, Iowa | ||||
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An offensive lineman does not get mocked to the Redskins very often, but I think it might make the most sense. If the Redskins (read: Robert Griffin III) are going to have any success, they have to find a way to keep RG3 upright. That starts with picking up Scherff. | |||
6 |
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New York Jets | (4-12) (.543 SOS) | |||
Vic Beasley, Outside linebacker/defensive end, Clemson | ||||
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Todd Bowles is going to want to get the Jets defense back to one of the top units in the league. He can start that with picking up a top-level pass rusher, which is exactly what Beasley gives him. | |||
7 |
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Chicago Bears | (5-11) (.529 SOS) | |||
Amari Cooper, Wide receiver, Alabama | ||||
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Chicago could not have this scenario go better for them. They trade away Brandon Marshall and land the top wide receiver in this year's Draft. I almost stuck with Kevin White here, despite Cooper being on the board, based on the size advantage of White, but in the end, Cooper is rated ahead of White on my big board, so I will take Cooper. | |||
8 |
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Atlanta Falcons | (6-10) (.482 SOS) | |||
Bud Dupree, Outside linebacker/defensive end, Kentucky | ||||
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The Falcons need to add pass rushers this offseason. As pass rushers fall down the board due to drug problems, Dupree may be the biggest winner as he jumps up to the eighth overall selection. | |||
9 |
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New York Giants | (6-10) (.512 SOS) | |||
Andrus Peat, Offensive Tackle, Stanford | ||||
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The Giants need to protect Eli Manning. If La'el Collins' situation is resolved today, he would replace Peat in this scenario, but for now, I will go this way. | |||
10 |
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St. Louis Rams | (6-10) (.531 SOS) | |||
Kevin White, Wide receiver, West Virginia | ||||
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I had Cooper going to the Rams in the first version of my mock draft. I think the Rams might actually be happier "settling" for White here. Suddenly, St. Louis has the big bodied wide receiver to go opposite fellow West Virginia receivers Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin. | |||
11 |
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Minnesota Vikings | (7-9) (.475 SOS) | |||
Trae Waynes, Cornerback, Michigan State | ||||
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This pick does not change from my last mock draft. Minnesota needs secondary help, and Waynes would immediately update the position. | |||
12 |
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Cleveland Browns | (7-9) (.479 SOS) | |||
Eddie Goldman, Defensive tackle, Florida State | ||||
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Cleveland would likely prefer a pass rusher in this spot, but, unless they are willing to take a chance on either Randy Gregory or Shane Ray, taking a defensive tackle is probably the right move. Goldman in the middle may not be a true nose tackle, but he does have a high ceiling and could develop into the flex defensive tackle that can fill both a 4-3 and a 3-4 role. | |||
13 |
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New Orleans Saints | (7-9) (.486 SOS) | |||
DeVante Parker, Wide receiver, Louisville | ||||
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Like the Browns ahead of them, a pass rusher would make a lot of sense for the Saints, but they likely will not look at Gregory or Ray, so instead, they grab Parker, giving them a big target that Drew Brees should love. | |||
14 |
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Miami Dolphins | (8-8) (.512 SOS) | |||
Todd Gurley, Running back, Georgia | ||||
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The first time I built this mock draft, I actually had the Dolphins picking Washington cornerback Marcus Peters because I had Gurley off the board. I thought that scenario made a lot of sense until I realized I had somehow skipped Amari Cooper being selected early in the Draft, so I had to rebuild - which brings me back to my Mock 1.0 pick for Miami, which is Gurley. The Dolphins need to upgrade the rushing attack. Pairing Gurley and Lamar Miller completes that upgrade. | |||
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San Francisco 49ers | (8-8) (.527 SOS) | |||
Eric Kendricks, Inside linebacker, UCLA | ||||
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The dearth of defensive tackles available here makes this a tougher decision for the 49ers, who could use any of them, but the loss of linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland this offseason makes linebacker the biggest need on the team. Kendricks should come in right away and earn a starting position. | |||
16 |
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Houston Texans | (9-7) (.447 SOS) | |||
Shaq Thompson, Linebacker, Washington | ||||
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No one really seems to know what to do with Thompson. Sometimes he lands in the top half of the first round, sometimes he does not make it into the first round. He is going to be a little raw, but the Texans can use the linebacker help, and they have the defense to cover for some of his rookie mistakes. I still want to give Dorial Green-Beckham to the Texans, but they seriously do not play with the off-field character issues. Jaelen Strong was my pick for them last time, and I think they could look that way too. | |||
17 |
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San Diego Chargers | (9-7) (.512 SOS) | |||
Danny Shelton, Defensive tackle, Washington | ||||
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This may be exactly the scenario San Diego wants to see happen. They need to bolster their defensive line, and a true nose tackle is just sitting there waiting for them. Shelton to the Chargers makes the most sense - unless they make the trade up to the second pick to grab Mariota. | |||
18 |
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Kansas City Chiefs | (9-7) (.512 SOS) | |||
Breshad Perriman, Wide receiver, UCF | ||||
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Perriman gives the Chiefs a big-bodied receiver with speed to immediately replace Dwayne Bowe and - potentially - score touchdowns from the receiver position. It's a novel concept in Kansas City. | |||
19 |
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Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo Bills) | (Bills: 9-7) (.516 SOS) | |||
Jaelen Strong, Wide receiver, Arizona State | ||||
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The Browns went defensive line with their first pick of the round, which means they probably are looking to either upgrade the pass rush or grab one of the wide receivers at this point. With the 6-foot-3 Strong still sitting on the board, they land an immediate replacement for Josh Gordon. | |||
20 |
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Philadelphia Eagles | (10-6) (.490 SOS) | |||
Landon Collins, S, Alabama | ||||
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This pick remains the same from the 1.0 version of my mock draft. If Landon Collins is still on the board here, the Eagles should take him. He will fit right into their lineup and give them some comfort in the secondary. | |||
21 |
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Cincinnati Bengals | (10-5-1) (.489 SOS) | |||
Malcolm Brown, Defensive tackle, Texas | ||||
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The Bengals have a lot of needs, and could look to go several different directions with this pick. The needs along the defensive line may dictate a need pick here, and Brown in right at the top of the best players available, so everything seems to click. | |||
22 |
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Pittsburgh Steelers | (11-5) (.451 SOS) | |||
Kevin Johnson, Cornerback, Wake Forest | ||||
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The Steelers need a cornerback, and it is just a matter of which one they want. | |||
23 |
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Detroit Lions | (11-5) (.471 SOS) | |||
Marcus Peters, Cornerback, Washington | ||||
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Honestly, I do not know what to do with the Lions here. They could look for cornerback help, in which case Peters makes sense, but they could also look defensive tackle or offensive line here, which could make just as much sense. I also think they could consider Melvin Gordon here, even with Joique Bell looking like the starter. | |||
24 |
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Arizona Cardinals | (11-5) (.523 SOS) | |||
Melvin Gordon, Running back, Wisconsin | ||||
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If the Lions are not going to bite on Gordon, I think the Cardinals absolutely will. He immediately upgrades the offense, and he gives Carson Palmer the running back compliment he needs to try to take Arizona past the Wildcard round of the playoffs. | |||
25 |
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Carolina Panthers | (7-8-1) (.490 SOS) | |||
Ereck Flowers, Offensive tackle, Miami | ||||
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There are a lot of options that could make sense for the Panthers at this point, but any team that currently has Jonathan Martin needs offensive line help. | |||
26 |
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Baltimore Ravens | (10-6) (.475 SOS) | |||
Maxx Williams, Tight end, Minnesota | ||||
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Any offensive weapon to compliment Steve Smith will work for the Ravens in this spot. Picking up Williams solves one problem with the top ranked player at his position, while allowing the team to look at wide receiver later in the Draft. | |||
27 |
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Dallas Cowboys | (12-4) (.445 SOS) | |||
Arik Armstead, Defensive end, Oregon | ||||
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The Cowboys have got to address the pass defense, with the two major options being to take a cornerback or a pass rusher. They choose the pass rush option here. | |||
28 |
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Denver Broncos | (12-4) (.521 SOS) | |||
Cameron Erving, Center, Florida State | ||||
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When you have Peyton Manning coming back to (likely) make one last run at a Super Bowl, you have to find a way to protect him. Erving gives the team a jack-of-all-trades type of offensive lineman, letting the team find the best place to play him. | |||
29 |
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Indianapolis Colts | (11-5) (.479 SOS) | |||
D.J. Humphries, Offensive tackle, Florida | ||||
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Andrew Luck gets hit way too often - similar to Ryan Tannehill, honestly - and Humphries has Pro Bowl potential if he develops as expected. | |||
30 |
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Green Bay Packers | (12-4) (.482) | |||
Denzel Perryman, Linebacker, Miami | ||||
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Adding Perryman to the middle of the Packers' defense allows them to turn Clay Matthews loose on opposing quarterbacks. That's good news for Green Bay, bad news for everyone else. | |||
31 |
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New Orleans Saints (via Seattle Seahawks) | (Seahawks: 12-4) (.525 SOS) | |||
Randy Gregory, Defensive end, Nebraska | ||||
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Figuring out where Gregory lands after his failed drug test is hard to do. Really, it is just a guess as to who is willing to take the chance. I give Sean Payton a chance to get Gregory on the right path, and it gives the Saints a top five talent with the 31st overall pick. | |||
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New England Patriots | (12-4) (.514 SOS) | |||
Jordan Phillips, Defensive tackle, Oklahoma | ||||
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Lose Vince Wilfork, and you need to address the middle of the defensive line. The Patriots do that with the selection of Phillips, who has Pro Bowl potential and should fill in perfectly as a nose tackle capable player in the middle of the line. | |||