clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Mock Draft review: What if the Miami Dolphins had drafted according to Mel Kiper or Todd McShay?

New, comments

What if the Miami Dolphins had drafted according to the last mock draft from Mel Kiper, Jr. or Todd McShay over the last five years?

Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

This time of year we find ourselves inundated with mock drafts, all giving us different projections of how the first round of the actual NFL Draft will unfold. No matter how well researched a mock draft is, how much "inside" knowledge the author may have, or how blatant a team's needs may be, the Draft always sends a curveball early, and makes every mock draft wrong.

ESPN's Mel Kiper. Jr., once defined a mock draft as successful if it correctly predicts 27 of the first 32 players selected, and it matches player and team in five instances. Five picks out of 32 correct is not a great measure of success, but it does demonstrate exactly how difficult - impossible - projecting how the first round will unfold really is.

Kiper, and his ESPN colleague Todd McShay, each spend every offseason analyzing the NFL, the individual teams, and the draft prospects. They modify and update their mock drafts throughout the build up to the Draft, ultimately trying to predict the first round's 32 selections just prior to the actual start of the Draft.

If Kiper or McShay, who are probably the best known mock draft creators around the internet, were given control of a team, say the Miami Dolphins, how would they pick? We decided to go back and look at the last five years of mock drafts for both Kiper and McShay, taking a look at how the Dolphins would have picked if either of the two ESPN analysts had that power, as well as how the Dolphins actually picked.

Both of these looks use the final version of the Kiper and McShay mock drafts for each year.

(And, to be completely transparent, I ripped off this idea from our friends over at Blogging the Boys. The Approximate Value for each player comes from Pro-Football-Reference.com)

2010

12th pick

Draft Player All
Pro
Pro
Bowls
Starter
Season
Games
Started
Approximate
Value
Mel Kiper, Jr. Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama 0 0 4 50 24
Todd McShay Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas 0 0 0 0 0
Actual Dolphins Pick Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State 0 0 3 41 21

McClain was selected by the Oakland Raiders with the eighth overall pick, four picks before the Dolphins were scheduled to select. Miami then traded back to the 28th selection in the round, picking up a extra second-round pick from the New Orleans Saints in the process. The Dolphins picked Odrick with that 28th selection. Kindle remained on the board until the second round, being taken with the 43rd overall pick by the Baltimore Ravens.

McClain spent three years with the Raiders, before he was unceremoniously released by the team after the 2012 season. He was signed by the Baltimore Ravens, but chose to retire. The Dallas Cowboys traded for his rights this past offseason, with McClain coming out of retirement to start 12 games for Dallas. He is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, and, according to reports over the weekend, will be facing a four-game fine for failing a third drug test.

Kindle fell in the draft, in part due to a chronic knee-issue. Shortly before his rookie training camp with the Ravens, Kindle fell down two flights of stairs a home in Austin, Texas, fracturing his skull. He spent the year on the Non-Football Injury list, not making an appearance until Week 4 of the 2011 season. In 2012, Kindle started the year on the 53-man roster for Baltimore, but was eventually waived and signed to the practice squad before being released after the 2013 season. He appeared in three games over his two-year career.

Odrick spent his rookie year on injured reserve after breaking his foot in the preseason, but has developed into a key member of the defensive line. He has played defensive end, linebacker, and defensive tackle for the team, settling into the interior defensive line for the past two seasons. He is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, and is considered one of the top defensive line free agents on the market. He has 16.5 sacks, 129 tackles, three forced fumbles, and one interception in his career.

2011

15th pick

Draft Player All
Pro
Pro
Bowls
Starter
Season
Games
Started
Approximate
Value
Mel Kiper, Jr. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama 0 1 1 21 19
Todd McShay Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida 0 2 4 58 32
Actual Dolphins Pick Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida 0 2 4 58 32

Kiper's selection of Ingram waited until the 28th overall pick to go to the New Orleans Saints. McShay's pick of Pouncey proved to be the correct projection.

Ingram spent the first three years of his career primarily as a complimentary running back, but was given the starting position for the 2014 season. He responded by earning his first Pro Bowl berth while picking up 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries, playing in just 13 games with 9 starts. He has appeared in 50 games for the Saints since his selection.

Pouncey was installed as the starting center for the Dolphins immediately after his selection, and he has been a rock in the middle of the offensive line since. Despite debates if he was a guard or center at the NFL level, after having played guard most of his college career while his twin brother, Maurkice, played guard, the Dolphins' Pouncey has proven his ability to play the position in the league, earning his first Pro Bowl berth in 2013. After missing the first four games of the 2014 season due to a hip injury, Pouncey returned to the offensive line at right guard while the Dolphins looked for an answer to a shaky protection group. He was again selected to the Pro Bowl after the season, playing in the all-star game next to Maurkice.

2012

8th pick

Draft Player All
Pro
Pro
Bowls
Starter
Season
Games
Started
Approximate
Value
Mel Kiper, Jr. Riley Reiff, OL, Iowa 0 0 2 39 15
Todd McShay Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M 0 0 3 48 34
Actual Dolphins Pick Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M 0 0 3 48 34

Reiff was bypassed by the Dolphins, staying on the board until the Detroit Lions selected him with the 23rd overall pick. McShay again nailed the Dolphins' actual pick, projecting the team to take Tannehill with the eighth overall selection.

Reiff spent the 2012 season coming off the bench, seeing playing time primarily as a blocking tight end. He moved into the starting left tackle position in 2013, holding it through this past season as well.

Tannehill became the first Dolphins rookie quarterback to start every game of his rookie year, after being the first quarterback selected by Miami in the first-round of the draft since Dan Marino in 1983. He has started every game over his three year career, tallying a 23-25 record with 11,252 passing yards with a 61.9 completion percentage, as well as 63 touchdowns to 42 interceptions, giving him an 84.0 passer rating. Tannehill has added 760 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

2013

12th pick

Draft Player All
Pro
Pro
Bowls
Starter
Season
Games
Started
Approximate
Value
Mel Kiper, Jr. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 1 1 0 13 12
Todd McShay D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama 0 0 2 31 18
Actual Dolphins Pick Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon 0 0 0 1 3

Patterson was selected by the Minnesota Vikings with the third of their three first round picks in 2013, being selected with the 29th overall selection. Fluker was selected with the 11th pick, going to the San Diego Chargers. The Dolphins surprised everyone in the Draft, jumping from the 12th pick to the 3rd overall selection, swapping first-round picks with the Oakland Raiders along with the Dolphins' second round pick. Miami grabbed Jordan with the pick.

Patterson burst onto the scene as a rookie, earning a Pro Bowl berth and a First-Team All-Pro selection, primarily as a kick returner. He caught 45 passes for 469 yards and four touchdowns that year, but it was his 32.4 yards per return average, with two touchdowns, on 43 returns that was the real highlight. As a sophomore, Patterson did not have the same impact, catching just 33 passes for 384 yards and a score, as well as a 25.6 yards for kick return average on 34 attempts. He has appeared in all 32 games since he was drafted, starting 13 of them.

Fluker has started all 31 games in which he has played since being drafted, playing primarily at right tackle. Rumors this offseason have indicated Fluker could move inside to right guard for the Chargers in 2015

Jordan has been a disappointment so far for the Dolphins. He began his rookie season with a shoulder injury, as well as the NFL's prohibition on rookie players practicing with their teams prior to their academic term being completed. Once Jordan was able to practice, he seemed behind the rest of the team, as well as needing to work on his pass rush moves and his ability to set the edge against the run. Coming into the 2014 season, expectations were large for Jordan until two separate PED related suspensions caused him to miss the first three games of the year. Once again, upon his return, Jordan appeared to be behind the rest of the team and, while he did see some playing time on defense, was mostly used on special teams. The Dolphins coaches have indicated they may look to move Jordan from defensive end to linebacker in the offseason.

2014

19th pick

Draft Player All
Pro
Pro
Bowls
Starter
Season
Games
Started
Approximate
Value
Mel Kiper, Jr. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama 0 0 0 0 0
Todd McShay Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama 0 0 0 0 0
Actual Dolphins Pick Ja'Wuan James, OT, Tennessee 0 0 1 16 9

Kouandjio was selected in the second round by the Buffalo Bills, using the 44th overall pick. The Dolphins selected James with the 19th pick.

Kouandjio is a relative unknown for the Bills at this point. He spent a large portion of the season on the inactive list each game day, and the team flirted with the idea of moving him inside to guard. How Kouandjio will fit into the offensive line, and into new head coach Rex Ryan's scheme, will be seen this year.

James came into Miami's offense as the starting right tackle, a position he immediately upgraded. He played well early in the year, limiting rookie mistakes and appearing to have been the absolute right choice for the Dolphins, who started the year with five new offensive linemen after a miserable 2014 season. James eventually was forced to play on the left side of the line, a position he had never played in college, when the team lost Branden Albert to injury. James should move back to right tackle for 2015, and will likely return to the high level of play he exhibited early in the 2014 season.

2015

14th pick

Draft Player All
Pro
Pro
Bowls
Starter
Season
Games
Started
Approximate
Value
Mel Kiper, Jr. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State -- -- -- -- --
Todd McShay Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State -- -- -- -- --
Actual Dolphins Pick ? -- -- -- -- --

Both Kiper and McShay currently have the Dolphins looking at Michigan State's Waynes with the 14th overall pick. They are both on the second version of their mock drafts for this year, and plenty will change between now and the Draft.

Summary

Year
Pick Kiper McShay Dolphins
2010 12th
(Traded back to 28th)
Rolando McClain
LB, Alabama
Sergio Kindle
LB, Texas
Jared Odrick
DE, Penn State
2011 15th Mark Ingram
RB, Alabama
Mike Pouncey
OL, Florida
Mike Pouncey
OL, Florida
2012 8th Riley Reiff
OT, Iowa
Ryan Tannehill
QB, Texas A&M
Ryan Tannehill
QB, Texas A&M
2013 12th
(Traded up to 3rd)
Cordarrelle Patterson
WR, Tennessee
D.J. Fluker
OT, Alabama
Dion Jordan
DE, Oregon
2014 19th Cyrus Kouandjio
OT, Alabama
Cyrus Kouandjio
OT, Alabama
Ja'Wuan James
OT, Tennessee
2015 14th Trae Waynes
CB, Michigan State
Trae Waynes
CB, Michigan State
?

What do you think of the Drafts? Should the Dolphins have gone with Kiper? McShay? Or did they outperform the ESPN analysts? Let us know what you think.