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Phinsider NFL Week 14 picks against the spread

Our Week 14 picks against the spread.

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we missed last week's picks against the spread. We return with them this week, however, and a look back at my picks from Week 12. Two weeks ago, I went 6-8 for the week, making me 43-49-1 on the year.

I continue to hover right between 45-percent and 50-percent correct picks, but need to pick it back up this week. Let's see the games and the spreads:

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) - This game is essentially a toss up, according to the spread. It opened at three points, the home field advantage line, then moved down to 2.5 for Miami. The fact that this game is in Miami, and the showings Miami has had at home this year including the wins over New England and San Diego, and the near win over Green Bay, has me leaning back to the Dolphins. Pick: Dolphins (-2.5)

St. Louis Rams (-3) at Washington Redskins - St. Louis is the better team, even when giving away three points. Pick: Rams (-3)

Houston Texans (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars - I don't like the Texans enough to back them with a six point deficit to a Jaguars team that can get hot and is playing at home. This game feels like a straight up upset for me, and definitely with a six point spread. Pick: Jaguars (+6)

New York Giants (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans - This is a game I do not want to go anywhere near this week. This game is a pick 'em, with the line moving back and forth between both teams, usually between about 1.5 points for the Giants and one point for the Titans. I don't like the Giants, I don't like the Titans. I'll make a pick here, just so I pick every game. Pick: Titans (+1.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5) - It's a big number, but Tampa Bay has not really shown anything that makes me scared of giving these points. Plus, it is in Detroit, so that helps justify giving away 9.5 points. Pick: Lions (-9.5)

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-10) - New Orleans is not the New Orleans we have come to know when they are home at the Superdome this year. The Panthers, however, are not exactly setting the world on fire. I really do not know which way to go in this game, but I probably trust the Saints in New Orleans better than I trust the Panthers on the road. Pick: Saints (-10)

Indianapolis Colts at (-3) at Cleveland Browns - I'm actually a little surprised this game is this close on the board. If this game were in Indianapolis, or if the Browns were starting Johnny Manziel, I would absolutely take the Colts here. Instead, I will take the points. Pick: Browns (+3)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Which Steelers team shows up this week? The Bengals should win this game, but I am going to take the points on a hunch that this game is really close. Pick: Steelers (+3)

New York Jets a Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) - I'm going to back the Jets here, just because we saw that there is still at least some fight in Rex Ryan's team, even if they are sitting at 2-10 on the year. Minnesota is the better team, but they are not that much better. I'll take the points. Pick: Jets (+5.5)

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10) - This is a big number, and, by now, you should realize I usually take the underdog when it is a big number. Not here. I like Buffalo's defense, but I like Denver's as well. I like Denver's offense, but do not feel the same about the Bills'. I saw what Denver could do when they came back from 11 down in the fourth quarter against Miami, as well as what happened to Buffalo when they played Miami for the second time this season. I'll take a risk and give the points. Pick: Broncos (-10)

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Arizona Cardinals - Weird line. The only thing I can guess is that the general public likes the Chiefs' brand more than the Cardinals' brand. I like Arizona here straight up, so I will definitely take the points. Pick: Cardinals (+1)

San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) at Oakland Raiders - San Francisco should win this game easily. Pick: 49ers (-8.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1) - I'm actually surprised this line is on the Eagles' side right now. A close line makes sense, but I would have expected Seattle to be giving the points. I would rather be taking points here with an Eagles pick, but I think they win straight up, so I will still take them here as well. Pick: Eagles (-1)

New England Patriots (-4) at San Diego Chargers - This game should be a really good one, and it should be fun to watch. The contest being in San Diego will help the Chargers some, but the Patriots are the Patriots. I will give the points here, though I would not be surprised if San Diego keeps it closer than expected. Pick: Patriots (-4)

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-13) - Green Bay is probably the top team in the NFL, and this line reflects that as they face a team who could be headed toward a playoff berth with a losing record as they fight for the NFC South division championship. It is, however, a huge line, and one I will happily take and assume Atlanta will be within 13 at the end of the game. Pick: Falcons (+13)